Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[NoahA]

Good dog, Jack, good boy. Here's your bone for today, doggie, now wag your tail

I put Jack on ignore a week or two ago. Just couldn't stand his posts. I get he is a bear, but he didn't really add anything useful so now I no longer see his posts. But I can still see that he starts a ton of threads based on the main page though! LOL

 

[JackMorgan]

 

[JackMorgan]

I put Jack on ignore a week or two ago. Just couldn't stand his posts. I get he is a bear, but he didn't really add anything useful so now I no longer see his posts. But I can still see that he starts a ton of threads based on the main page though! LOL

lol nothing useful ? good one ! a real rodney dangerfield

no go back to your arkk

 

[JackMorgan]

the dominos are falling fast

scam of the millennia

as soon as Tether implodes , BTC < 10k instantly

Sell now

Posted as a pubic service 2022

 

[johnarb]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537768257234649091

 

[savoir]

I know, I know... It's a 1 way market, it's like manna from heaven, lol

And the Fed has no choice, unless something breaks somewhere, most likely in the global credit markets

This is difficult to explain but once I traded the cryptos market, the stock market is just not enough risk/reward

[Not currently, of course, crypto winters are horrible for speculation and even short term trading]

Perhaps a simple example would be the 24/7 nature of cryptos

In the stock market, if I'm heavily short going into a long weekend like July 4th and something happens, let's say Japan financial market turmoil, similar to 2008 GFC, and the Fed announces an emergency rate cut and injection of liquidity, markets will open up big, and my position is at a loss

It's true I can reverse and go long and happy days again even in cryptos possibly...

Anyway, it's back at the beginning. $30k capital, I should trade short, or buy puts on highly liquid list, AAPL, IWM, SPY, QQQ, etc, if it goes down to $20K withdraw and forget about it. I have thought about it, but every time decide against it. Not enough risk vs reward, imho

I wasn’t referring to any particular market to trade but just to learn to trade. Specifically, short-term trading. You could trade Bitcoin.

You seem to have a shallow understanding about stock trading. I don’t quite get your risk to reward thinking.

Are you saying you can’t make big profits in the stock market? The stock market is huge. You can’t have an account too large for it to handle.

 

[johnarb]

I wasn’t referring to any particular market to trade but just to learn to trade. Specifically, short-term trading. You could trade Bitcoin.

You seem to have a shallow understanding about stock trading. I don’t quite get your risk to reward thinking.

Are you saying you can’t make big profits in the stock market? The stock market is huge. You can’t have an account too large for it to handle.

We're having a misunderstanding. There are unlimited amounts of money to be made in trading stocks, ETF's, options on both, futures, bond market and cryptos

I'm not a short term trader, more like a swing trader with most holding time of 1 month or longer. I also call myself an FA trader as a result, I trade on fundamentals

I'm not good for trading any of the markets above without taking a risk that I consider the reward to be too low. I would take that risk if I think the reward is worth at least 300% ROI

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An example of a position I put in recently which is in the stock market, is MSTR call leaps options ootm

If btc goes above $60K before Jan 19, 2024 and MSTR follows the valuation model it had in Nov vis-a-vis BTC price, I believe my options will be worth over 400% ROI based on intrinsic value of the options, alone

 

[savoir]

We're having a misunderstanding. There are unlimited amounts of money to be made in trading stocks, ETF's, options on both, futures, bond market and cryptos

I'm not a short term trader, more like a swing trader with most holding time of 1 month or longer. I also call myself an FA trader as a result, I trade on fundamentals

I'm not good for trading any of the markets above without taking a risk that I consider the reward to be too low. I would take that risk if I think the reward is worth at least 300% ROI

------

An example of a position I put in recently which is in the stock market, is MSTR call leaps options ootm

If btc goes above $60K before Jan 19, 2024 and MSTR follows the valuation model it had in Nov vis-a-vis BTC price, I believe my options will be worth over 400% ROI based on intrinsic value of the options, alone

Yes, I was referring to short-term, intraday. It’s not for everyone.

That MSTR position is like buying a lottery ticket. Must be one of those asymmetric bets you were talking about. What I would call gambling.

 

[The_Krakenite]

Today I just doubled-down on MSTR.

 

[Ed48]

But going forward, I can see that only Bitcoin is the only crypto to hold for long term.

I don't own any crypto but if I was going to buy any it would only be Bitcoin. I don't see any point in diversifying in this space.

None of these losses are life changing money, so its ok, and they are still just paper losses, but certainly it sucks to have only finally taken crypto seriously at the end of this last bull run.

That's what late stage bull markets do. They suck in people who'd either been previously sceptical or ambivalent. It happened to me with precious metals in the late 2000s.

If this is an average Bitcoin bear market (or winter as johnarb calls it) then it shouldn't fall much further. We're already at just over 70% drawdown.

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#ig2-hourzczsg2021-11-09ztgCzm1g200zm2g25zp

But if it's Bitcoin ice age...