Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

*** Post is for entertainment purposes only ***

See above, NFA here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537368322786099200

So, this Celsius stuff, plus 3AC stuff, plus Tron (TRX) stablecoins stuff, plus rumors of other dominoes falling, they all seem legit and some are seen on the blockchain transactions, even visible with a flash crash on Uniswap dex a couple of days ago

Counterparties and trade partners of 3AC have been publicly complaining of being ghosted, no communication at all

But dayum.... it also feels like psyop, like all the major fud and stuff are coordinated at the best possible time given the crash in the stock market, bond market, and possibly real estate market (soon™️) to get all the crypto hodlers scared and dump while the rich f*kcers at GS, MS, JPM, BR and other global rich and institutions scoop up the crypto assets on the cheap

All of these have no effect on me, if the contagion is real, ok cool, if they are designed to fud to get the hodlers to sell, ok cool

I'm not buying or selling at this price... My plan is to start buying more Btc if it goes to $10K, everything else at this stage is noise to me

When I watch the price action like the other night I was waiting for Btc to crash down through $20K but it didn't. Like come on, get going already, we have these "supposedly" liquidations happening everywhere in cryptos and there are some buyers that keep buying, makes me wonder...

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PS: Deribit rumor too, but Cobie on DM's said they're ok. 3AC is a Deribit shareholder

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537465349976694786
 
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johnarb said:
But dayum.... it also feels like psyop, like all the major fud and stuff are coordinated at the best possible time given the crash in the stock market, bond market, and possibly real estate market (soon™️) to get all the crypto hodlers scared and dump while the rich f*kcers at GS, MS, JPM, BR and other global rich and institutions scoop up the crypto assets on the cheap
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I think exactly this too. It sucks that I have no more money to really accumulate. Maybe below 10k I too would find whatever I can to improve the average tremendously.

When all the forced selling is done, I am very curious to see what the price action will be. My hunch, based on absolutely nothing, is that Bitcoin will recover much faster that previous times. Everyone will be too scared to touch anything other than Bitcoin, and the government officials will have shown they have no power over a failing economy and monetary system. I don't think we will even need fake tethers to bump up the price as @RedDuke keeps saying. The buying will be organic. Everyone will learn about counter party risk, and the whole LME fiasco with cancelled trades will further show that no exchange can be trusted. So I think all money will flow into Bitcoin.
 
One more point. I think of this for selling like what happened to oil in March 2020. Never mind even went it went negative but when it was in the low single digits or low double digits it was obvious that it wasn't the true price of oil, it was just a reflection of the current market conditions. And look at where oil is today.

I expect something similar to happen to bitcoin. Major funds and whales are having to sell because they are blowing up so it's almost pretty spectacular that since all this happened Bitcoin has only dropped maybe 40 or 50% (Since March or so). All of the selling was somehow absorbed by somebody. And once all the selling is done, there will be so much money on the sidelines waiting to come in that I think the rise will happen very quickly.

As you as you said John, there are other people massively accumulating during this liquidity crunch. When everyone else thinks the bottom is in and they want to get in as well it will be quite the rally.
 
What I remember, was the (day-traders) new figuring out that they can't lose by buying negative contracts. Then they were sitting at losses in the tens of millions.
 
NoahA said:
I expect something similar to happen to bitcoin. Major funds and whales are having to sell because they are blowing up so it's almost pretty spectacular that since all this happened Bitcoin has only dropped maybe 40 or 50% (Since March or so). All of the selling was somehow absorbed by somebody. And once all the selling is done, there will be so much money on the sidelines waiting to come in that I think the rise will happen very quickly.
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Yea, I remember from one of the Market Wizards books talking about this kind of price action is very good +EV trade

When all the public information and news are indicating a big move to a direction but the stock/asset stays flat, that means there's a good chance it will move big in the opposite direction

All these liquidation stuff have only started around the Btc $29-$31K range and Btc did go down, but now has stopped, and liquidation and more are still coming out... Why did Btc and other cryptos stop going down?
 
savoir said:
No interest in learning to trade?

You could at least be making money while wasting time on here.
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Let me respond in reverse, time here on ET is not wasted time, it's to pass the time until the bull market. In the past, I would have taken a break here and volunteered for as many work projects to pass the time

I'm also spending more time with family, and it's some of the happiest times I will commit to memory until I'm old

Speaking of family, in the past 4 months at least 3 family members have asked me to help them invest since they think I'm successful able to quit my job and to all of them I said keep your money in cash, Fed has a single focus and mandate which is to fight inflation by destroying wealth effect to lower demand for goods and services. I say at least 3 family members but 1 of them asked me at a family party with others around so other people were also asking for my opinion

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Look, I know what to do, it seems simple, deposit $10K at the broker where I purchased the MSTR LEAPS call options and on days we get a bear market rally like yesterday, buy 6 month puts and sell a few when it doubles, sell a few when a target price is met, and sell all when satisfied

Why 6 month puts? in a few months Fed may pause, per rumors circulating

Why I don't buy puts on QQQ, AAPL, AMZN, IWM, SPY?? or trade on the short side??

I have no job. All cash are for surviving the crypto winter. When crypto bull market is back, I can make a lot more with a single play like CEL tokens or AMPL tokens, thousands of % ROI, no one trading the stock market knows what kind of returns are being made in the cryptos market

MrMuppet has tried to explain on many posts

Trade the stock market and take risks with cash that is for the purpose spending on living expenses?? No thanks, that would be irresponsible for me to do especially I have a family
 
johnarb said:
Let me respond in reverse, time here on ET is not wasted time, it's to pass the time until the bull market. In the past, I would have taken a break here and volunteered for as many work projects to pass the time

I'm also spending more time with family, and it's some of the happiest times I will commit to memory until I'm old

Speaking of family, in the past 4 months at least 3 family members have asked me to help them invest since they think I'm successful able to quit my job and to all of them I said keep your money in cash, Fed has a single focus and mandate which is to fight inflation by destroying wealth effect to lower demand for goods and services. I say at least 3 family members but 1 of them asked me at a family party with others around so other people were also asking for my opinion

-------

Look, I know what to do, it seems simple, deposit $10K at the broker where I purchased the MSTR LEAPS call options and on days we get a bear market rally like yesterday, buy 6 month puts and sell a few when it doubles, sell a few when a target price is met, and sell all when satisfied

Why 6 month puts? in a few months Fed may pause, per rumors circulating

Why I don't buy puts on QQQ, AAPL, AMZN, IWM, SPY?? or trade on the short side??

I have no job. All cash are for surviving the crypto winter. When crypto bull market is back, I can make a lot more with a single play like CEL tokens or AMPL tokens, thousands of % ROI, no one trading the stock market knows what kind of returns are being made in the cryptos market

MrMuppet has tried to explain on many posts

Trade the stock market and take risks with cash that is for the purpose spending on living expenses?? No thanks, that would be irresponsible for me to do especially I have a family
More...
Okay, pass the time. Time passes regardless of what you’re doing. To me, just passing the time here posting seems like a wasted opportunity to use the time.

There’s a lot of money flowing past you daily while you pass the time posting. LOL

Your view on what is risky is interesting.

Trading a liquid market is very low risk. Monitoring real time and taking action instantly is about as low risk as trading can be.

It’s about grinding out profits daily. These days it’s not even grinding. More like accepting windfall profits.

But it’s only money so not a big deal.

Time is the only currency in life.
 
johnarb said:
Let me respond in reverse, time here on ET is not wasted time, it's to pass the time until the bull market. In the past, I would have taken a break here and volunteered for as many work projects to pass the time

I'm also spending more time with family, and it's some of the happiest times I will commit to memory until I'm old

Speaking of family, in the past 4 months at least 3 family members have asked me to help them invest since they think I'm successful able to quit my job and to all of them I said keep your money in cash, Fed has a single focus and mandate which is to fight inflation by destroying wealth effect to lower demand for goods and services. I say at least 3 family members but 1 of them asked me at a family party with others around so other people were also asking for my opinion

-------

Look, I know what to do, it seems simple, deposit $10K at the broker where I purchased the MSTR LEAPS call options and on days we get a bear market rally like yesterday, buy 6 month puts and sell a few when it doubles, sell a few when a target price is met, and sell all when satisfied

Why 6 month puts? in a few months Fed may pause, per rumors circulating

Why I don't buy puts on QQQ, AAPL, AMZN, IWM, SPY?? or trade on the short side??

I have no job. All cash are for surviving the crypto winter. When crypto bull market is back, I can make a lot more with a single play like CEL tokens or AMPL tokens, thousands of % ROI, no one trading the stock market knows what kind of returns are being made in the cryptos market

MrMuppet has tried to explain on many posts

Trade the stock market and take risks with cash that is for the purpose spending on living expenses?? No thanks, that would be irresponsible for me to do especially I have a family
More...
I have 2 questions. When is the tax selling going to subside? Are you related to Xela?
 
savoir said:
Okay, pass the time. Time passes regardless of what you’re doing. To me, just passing the time here posting seems like a wasted opportunity to use the time.

There’s a lot of money flowing past you daily while you pass the time posting. LOL

Your view on what is risky is interesting.

Trading a liquid market is very low risk. Monitoring real time and taking action instantly is about as low risk as trading can be.

It’s about grinding out profits daily. These days it’s not even grinding. More like accepting windfall profits.

But it’s only money so not a big deal.

Time is the only currency in life.
More...

I know, I know... It's a 1 way market, it's like manna from heaven, lol

And the Fed has no choice, unless something breaks somewhere, most likely in the global credit markets

This is difficult to explain but once I traded the cryptos market, the stock market is just not enough risk/reward

[Not currently, of course, crypto winters are horrible for speculation and even short term trading]

Perhaps a simple example would be the 24/7 nature of cryptos

In the stock market, if I'm heavily short going into a long weekend like July 4th and something happens, let's say Japan financial market turmoil, similar to 2008 GFC, and the Fed announces an emergency rate cut and injection of liquidity, markets will open up big, and my position is at a loss

It's true I can reverse and go long and happy days again even in cryptos possibly...

Anyway, it's back at the beginning. $30k capital, I should trade short, or buy puts on highly liquid list, AAPL, IWM, SPY, QQQ, etc, if it goes down to $20K withdraw and forget about it. I have thought about it, but every time decide against it. Not enough risk vs reward, imho
 
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