Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[Snarkhund]

Thanks for the info!! Yea, Bill Paxton was a great actor and died too soon, RIP...

If BTC was to go down to $10K, that would be in line with previous bear market peak to trough price crash of over 85%

I would prefer to wait until $5K/btc but I don't think btc may go that low. I'll start to add at $10K/btc

So far, we have not broken the previous cycle's high of $20K, I stayed up late last night but finally gave up and went to sleep. I just wanted to see it break, was not planning to buy or sell anything

The sitting out and waiting is the difficult part of being a hodler

Other people involved in cryptos are quietly building their projects, and in the past I had a job I could focus on... I should learn how to code so I can understand some of these smart contracts for the next bull market

Coding...

Once upon a time my boss at the Air Force Flight Test Center asked me to take a look at MATLAB to evaluate its suitability for large... very large data.

Next thing I knew I was World Ranked Top 10 of MATLAB authors. It just looks like English to me, they all do except Assembly.

I recommend Python, its like a free version of MATLAB with so many open source libraries that it has to regarded as more powerful than MATLAB at this point.

I spent a couple years in Chicago at Citadel as a result. Just a coder, pretty much the lowest form of life in the building lol. I did performance attribution, risk decomposition and the equity curve for the entire firm which was seriously restricted to a few users.

The thing about MATLAB is that it understands Java, PerlScript, C and SQL so you can write an unreadable witch's brew of them all to get the job done. So you rock up into a hedge fund, write a connection object to issue forth your SQL queries to their production database and you are in business.

 

[deaddog]

If BTC was to go down to $10K, that would be in line with previous bear market peak to trough price crash of over 85%

I would prefer to wait until $5K/btc but I don't think btc may go that low. I'll start to add at $10K/btc

If we hit those levels won't that break the 3 year rule?

 

[NoahA]

If we hit those levels won't that break the 3 year rule?

John is the expert here, but I really think something else is going on now. From what I'm reading, the selling is big institutions, and it's retail who is buying it up. When you have a whale who needs to sell, it's obvious the price will heavily drop since it takes lots of little bites from retail. The selling is driven by liquidity events.

This may end up being a gift for retail to be honest, and exactly what Bitcoin needs. To spread it out amongst more people is exactly what helps mass adoption.

If it was not for the Luna wreck and this stETH stuff going on with all these companies and yield farms, the selling would probably have never happened and prices might not have come down so low. If I am to trust the metrics I'm reading, adoption is growing and price dipping during this liquidity event is a gift.

 

[The_Krakenite]

Hate to break any party-pooper's bubble, but there was no margin-call for Microstrategy today.

Kinda the opposite, over 10% to the up-side.

 

[johnarb]

Coding...

Once upon a time my boss at the Air Force Flight Test Center asked me to take a look at MATLAB to evaluate its suitability for large... very large data.

Next thing I knew I was World Ranked Top 10 of MATLAB authors. It just looks like English to me, they all do except Assembly.

I recommend Python, its like a free version of MATLAB with so many open source libraries that it has to regarded as more powerful than MATLAB at this point.

I spent a couple years in Chicago at Citadel as a result. Just a coder, pretty much the lowest form of life in the building lol. I did performance attribution, risk decomposition and the equity curve for the entire firm which was seriously restricted to a few users.

The thing about MATLAB is that it understands Java, PerlScript, C and SQL so you can write an unreadable witch's brew of them all to get the job done. So you rock up into a hedge fund, write a connection object to issue forth your SQL queries to their production database and you are in business.

I heard a lot of good things about Python so definitely a good recommendation, thanks. I also want to learn Solidity so I can understand EVM smart contracts

One good thing about running Linux for over 10 years is that the OS is friendly to open source coding

I actually had to upgrade my bitcoin software today, did not realize v23.0 has been out, thought v.22.0 was the latest release since it supports Tap root already

git pull
git status
git checkout v23.0
./autogen.sh
./configure --with-incompatible-bdb
make -j15
sudo make install

 

[johnarb]

If we hit those levels won't that break the 3 year rule?

Yes, would be a first time for BTC... Unfortunately this bull market cycle top was too low,

Proper BTC top should have been over $200K, but Uncle Jerome pulled the rug from under us when he announced interest rate hike and QT

 

[deaddog]

Yes, would be a first time for BTC... Unfortunately this bull market cycle top was too low,

Proper BTC top should have been over $200K, but Uncle Jerome pulled the rug from under us when he announced interest rate hike and QT

You can see why I have trouble valuing bitcoin, how does the interest rates set by the fed affect the value.
If the Fed eases and prints fiat the value of bitcoin increases but if the fed tightens then the value of bitcoin falls. The Fed has said it will continue to tighten. The interest rates are not even close to the interest rates in the 80s, what happens if we get there?

Why does the Fed have any influence on what is supposed to be a global asset?

 

[johnarb]

You can see why I have trouble valuing bitcoin, how does the interest rates set by the fed affect the value.
If the Fed eases and prints fiat the value of bitcoin increases but if the fed tightens then the value of bitcoin falls. The Fed has said it will continue to tighten. The interest rates are not even close to the interest rates in the 80s, what happens if we get there?

Why does the Fed have any influence on what is supposed to be a global asset?

It's a market. Buyers and sellers, retail and institutions

 

[johnarb]

John is the expert here, but I really think something else is going on now. From what I'm reading, the selling is big institutions, and it's retail who is buying it up. When you have a whale who needs to sell, it's obvious the price will heavily drop since it takes lots of little bites from retail. The selling is driven by liquidity events.

This may end up being a gift for retail to be honest, and exactly what Bitcoin needs. To spread it out amongst more people is exactly what helps mass adoption.

If it was not for the Luna wreck and this stETH stuff going on with all these companies and yield farms, the selling would probably have never happened and prices might not have come down so low. If I am to trust the metrics I'm reading, adoption is growing and price dipping during this liquidity event is a gift.

The Luna/UST contagion was shock to the cryptos market. It caused all kinds of fears and "bank runs" on otherwise stable crypto businesses

Take for example Celsius Network, a crypto assets bank that many in the world have trusted with their crypto assets and Celsius lends out the crypto assets that were deposited with them to hundreds of the biggest institutional traders in the world like Sequoia so they can trade in the crypto markets

Plus Celsius is a big player in the crypto defi, staking for yields, i.e. stEth, or participating in dex liquidity pools. Celsius becoming insolvent is a very big deal and their unwinding and selling of all kinds of crypto assets to raise liquidity as far as I know is still ongoing. Lately in the news, Celsius is reaching out to experts in bankruptcy/restructure...

Now, if that's not bad enough, 3 Arrows Capital, one of the most successful crypto VC and hedge fund may be insolvent, too, due to losses that started in Luna/UST and possibly related to Celsius exposure as well

3AC provided seed funding for some of the most successful crypto projects, like L1 Avalanche and they were on top of the trading leaderboards all the time, how can they go bankrupt? It just shows us how quickly and violent this crypto market has crashed that one of the very best, 3AC, got rekt so bad. This situation is still ongoing as far as I know

Who knows how many more crypto firms are in trouble and will need to sell as much of their crypto asset holdings to raise liquidity?

There's rumors on the TRX stablecoins, too. Justin Sun, et al

We just don't know...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536987172397535232

 

[deaddog]

It's a market. Buyers and sellers, retail and institutions

And here I thought it was supposed to be a medium of exchange and a store of value.