Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

johnarb said:
There are a few macro investors who think the Fed cannot continue with this tightening much longer. They expect something major could break somewhere in the financial system...
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Huh? Wha? Much longer? They have only just BEGUN tightening. Wasn't it just a week ago they started to reduce their balance sheet?

If we cannot handle a one-two week tightening cycle on the sheet, we really are FUBAR.
 
Overnight said:
Huh? Wha? Much longer? They have only just BEGUN tightening. Wasn't it just a week ago they started to reduce their balance sheet?

If we cannot handle a one-two week tightening cycle on the sheet, we really are FUBAR.
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It goes above my head, but some passages that I've seen relate to global debt to GDP is 400% which means an interest rate of 3% would need 12% GDP which is unlikely

Even in the US, 120% debt to GDP

You can search Mark Yusko, Lyn Alden, Jim Bianco and Lawrence Lepard for some write ups on the subject
 
*** Post is for entertainment purposes only ***

Initiated the MSTR LEAPS calls position this week, but only half of my original planned risk capital

Looking at MSTR call options as a replacement for BTC options...

I think MSTR as a "BTC holding company" offers a better risk/reward profile than BTC options, imo

The company keeps acquiring BTC for their treasury which so far is 129K BTC's and any material change would have to be disclosed

Why LEAPS call options instead of shares? Leverage at the cost of a time deadline

I could be wrong but if BTC goes back above $60,000 within 19 months, the ROI on the options would be north of 400% based on where MSTR was trading in November 2021

Risk management? none on the options, planning to ride it to expiration or slowly sell the options once a BTC target price is hit to lock in profits and set stop losses

Cash management? Will sell 1 BTC if it goes down to $25K
 
johnarb said:
I think MSTR as a "BTC holding company" offers a better risk/reward profile than BTC options, imo
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Do you not think that there is a risk of the bitcoin disappearing? (ie. hack or incompetence?)

Exchanges themselves have been proven to be vulnerable to this, and I'm sure you know better than I how traders have become victims of this. I'm not saying Saylor will deliberately run off with the money, and maybe its all insured anyway, but given that this stock actually trades at a discount to the total value of the bitcoin they apparently have, there must be a reason for this, no?
 
deaddog said:
What strike price and expiry date
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I'd rather not disclose too many details, but LEAPS calls Jan/2024, they were bought this week, so not disclosing the purchase date as the volume on all the strike prices are low

Post is not a recommendation, just documenting for future posts on the thread

Pretty much all strike prices will behave similarly on %age returns if MSTR goes above $700/share
 
NoahA said:
Do you not think that there is a risk of the bitcoin disappearing? (ie. hack or incompetence?)

Exchanges themselves have been proven to be vulnerable to this, and I'm sure you know better than I how traders have become victims of this. I'm not saying Saylor will deliberately run off with the money, and maybe its all insured anyway, but given that this stock actually trades at a discount to the total value of the bitcoin they apparently have, there must be a reason for this, no?
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Microstrategy is a software company and capable of handling security of private keys

I don't know if they actually hold the BTC's themselves or using a private company like Gemini or Bitgo or other cold storage providers

Michael Saylor is a billionaire and owns thousands of BTC's in his personal account

MSTR is trading at a discount to the value of the BTC's due to debt obligations used to purchase some of the 129K Bitcoins

Assets - liabilities
 
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