Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

johnarb · May 9, 2022

savoir said:
Nice try, but our Bitcoin hero is the one who mentioned bonds, in the same breath with stocks, commercial real estate, and gold. From the context, it’s clear to me he is saying Bitcoin is the least risky asset (“the perfect asset”) relative to any other asset for retirement, period.

I have no opinion about bonds for retirement. I don’t trade them or invest in them. However, I’m sure you can find a lot of people to debate with, as stock/bond allocations are standard practice in conventional retirement planning. I’m just not one of them.

Ray Dalio I’ve heard of. Don’t know Gregg Foss. Are you suggesting these guys as more heroes to follow? How about thinking for yourself for a change.

You are sniping but I have no idea what you mean by my having “financial experience and all that.” I’m not hurting for money if that’s what you’re talking about. 401k’s are for plebs.

you keep talking about heroes,,, I already told you, there are no heroes or leaders in Bitcoin

It's the point of decentralization, but if goes above your head, it's ok, does not affect you in any way

Good thing you did not defend Bonds as investment, otherwise, I'd have completely lost any respect for you

Repeat after me, there are no heroes in Bitcoin... nor leaders

If you are looking for a hero for yourself, it's ok, I won't look down on you

savoir · May 9, 2022

johnarb said:
you keep talking about heroes,,, I already told you, there are no heroes or leaders in Bitcoin

It's the point of decentralization, but if goes above your head, it's ok, does not affect you in any way

Good thing you did not defend Bonds as investment, otherwise, I'd have completely lost any respect for you

Repeat after me, there are no heroes in Bitcoin... nor leaders

If you are looking for a hero for yourself, it's ok, I won't look down on you

I know you are but what am I?

Is this the level the exchange has come to? Take a break and continue when you have something interesting to add.

johnarb · May 9, 2022

savoir said:
I know you are but what am I?

Is this the level the exchange has come to? Take a break and continue when you have something interesting to add.

I was about to type the same thing

savoir, i looked up the translation of your name, come on man

I know you do not care if I respect you or not, but do you really want to lower yourself?

----------

There are many people with domain expertise and we take from them knowledge that we can use for ourselves

Greg Foss is a retired bond trader and explains the math and makes sense to me so now I have gained knowledge

Michael Saylor has knowledge he acquired from MIT and explains it in layman's terms I'm able to follow and makes me better informed

Jeff Booth is an excellent author and successful in business endeavors, and after reading his book, I've gained insights

That's how we learn... from others, from books, we keep an open mind. A closed mind stays ignorant

--------

Your name says it all. No one is born and grows up the most knowledgeable person in all subjects without reading books and learning from others, including teachers

To argue otherwise is just being disingenuous

I never used the word hero until responding to you. You brought that word here and keep using it

And this is why I really wanted to stop the exchange with you... I much preferred when we ended our exchange a few weeks ago

I will really have to be disciplined and not reply to you unless it's Bitcoin or Crypto Assets

Peace

NoahA · May 9, 2022

I wish everyone dumping on Bitcoin would pledge their allegence to never buying a single Satoshi, and that this could somehow be enforced. We all agree price is dropping, and it sucks for current holders. But most of you will be taking a stab at owning some I'm sure.

If we consider the 3 or 4 previous dumps of 80%, followed by huge rallies, who is going to say this next 80% dump, if it goes that low, will be the end of Bitcoin? Most of you will be loading up, especially when you see what your government and central bank has planned for you.

This price drop is a gift for those only starting. If I still had 30k to invest, I would layer in at every 1k lower as it drops. I would just put in bids all the way down to 1k and pray most get filled. If we stop at 20k and only 10 bids fill, well, at least I have 1/3rd of what I wanted to buy. I did buy at 37, 35, 33, and 31, and intend to keep adding. It's just too bad that it's smaller amounts since I bought more aggressively higher up.

deaddog · May 9, 2022

NoahA said:
This price drop is a gift for those only starting. If I still had 30k to invest, I would layer in at every 1k lower as it drops. I would just put in bids all the way down to 1k and pray most get filled. If we stop at 20k and only 10 bids fill, well, at least I have 1/3rd of what I wanted to buy. I did buy at 37, 35, 33, and 31, and intend to keep adding. It's just too bad that it's smaller amounts since I bought more aggressively higher up.

You know that there is a strategy where you let an asset bottom and buy on the way up?
You might not get the bottom but you don't have to sit and watch the value of your investment decline as the price drops.
If price drops after you buy just take a small loss and wait for the next opportunity.

savoir · May 9, 2022

johnarb said:
I was about to type the same thing

savoir, i looked up the translation of your name, come on man

I know you do not care if I respect you or not, but do you really want to lower yourself?

----------

There are many people with domain expertise and we take from them knowledge that we can use for ourselves

Greg Foss is a retired bond trader and explains the math and makes sense to me so now I have gained knowledge

Michael Saylor has knowledge he acquired from MIT and explains it in layman's terms I'm able to follow and makes me better informed

Jeff Booth is an excellent author and successful in business endeavors, and after reading his book, I've gained insights

That's how we learn... from others, from books, we keep an open mind. A closed mind stays ignorant

--------

Your name says it all. No one is born and grows up the most knowledgeable person in all subjects without reading books and learning from others, including teachers

To argue otherwise is just being disingenuous

I never used the word hero until responding to you. You brought that word here and keep using it

And this is why I really wanted to stop the exchange with you... I much preferred when we ended our exchange a few weeks ago

I will really have to be disciplined and not reply to you unless it's Bitcoin or Crypto Assets

Peace

It’s called mockery. I thought you knew. Weren’t you offended just a short while ago that I was mocking him this way? Bizarre.

I feel like I’m explaining a joke but he’s not a hero and he’s not worth looking up to. His interview reveals he is just a Bitcoin shill.

But you know who the real heroes are? The teachers! They’re the real heroes. Thanks, Norm.

Had to throw that in.

Learning is done in various ways. When learning about a subject, it helps to be rational and to think things through, and to especially consider the integrity of source materials.

But you are not really interested in discussing learning. Rather, your interest is in characterizing me as closed-minded and refusing to learn.

You are correct that I could not care less about gaining your respect or anyone else’s respect on a message board. You have your petty reasons for posting and so do I.

My petty reason is I enjoy the occasional banter. Spending so much time in front of my displays sometimes gets tedious and it helps with that.

Sooner or later I will tire of this forum and stay away for a few years. It’s a cycle I’ve repeated since 2001.

To say a few more words about learning, I try not to post completely useless crap but about things of which I have some knowledge and experience. Still, there is no need to take my posts seriously if they disturb you.

Stay positive.

johnarb · May 9, 2022

savoir said:
It’s called mockery. I thought you knew. Weren’t you offended just a short while ago that I was mocking him this way? Bizarre.

I feel like I’m explaining a joke but he’s not a hero and he’s not worth looking up to. His interview reveals he is just a Bitcoin shill.

But you know who the real heroes are? The teachers! They’re the real heroes. Thanks, Norm.

Had to throw that in.

Learning is done in various ways. When learning about a subject, it helps to be rational and to think things through, and to especially consider the integrity of source materials.

But you are not really interested in discussing learning. Rather, your interest is in characterizing me as closed-minded and refusing to learn.

You are correct that I could not care less about gaining your respect or anyone else’s respect on a message board. You have your petty reasons for posting and so do I.

My petty reason is I enjoy the occasional banter. Spending so much time in front of my displays sometimes gets tedious and it helps with that.

Sooner or later I will tire of this forum and stay away for a few years. It’s a cycle I’ve repeated since 2001.

To say a few more words about learning, I try not to post completely useless crap but about things of which I have some knowledge and experience. Still, there is no need to take my posts seriously if they disturb you.

Stay positive.

I much preferred the end of our exchange a few weeks ago...

Oh well, easy come easy go

NoahA · May 9, 2022

deaddog said:
You know that there is a strategy where you let an asset bottom and buy on the way up?
You might not get the bottom but you don't have to sit and watch the value of your investment decline as the price drops.
If price drops after you buy just take a small loss and wait for the next opportunity.

Of course it can be finessed, but I'm not scared to hold it. If you tell me it's going 25, then of course buying there is better than on the way down. But if I have to wait to see it going up, do I start buying at 35 because I need to see the rally is real? Then it dips down to 32, and as you say, take a small loss, and then it takes off again. When you buy at 35k, you have price risk because you are buying high, and when you buy at 30k you have information risk because you don't know if it's the bottom. But I'm happy getting the better price since I'm gonna hold it anyway.

deaddog · May 9, 2022

NoahA said:
Of course it can be finessed, but I'm not scared to hold it. If you tell me it's going 25, then of course buying there is better than on the way down. But if I have to wait to see it going up, do I start buying at 35 because I need to see the rally is real? Then it dips down to 32, and as you say, take a small loss, and then it takes off again. When you buy at 35k, you have price risk because you are buying high, and when you buy at 30k you have information risk because you don't know if it's the bottom. But I'm happy getting the better price since I'm gonna hold it anyway.

Well I got interested in bitcoin as a trade after a conversation with JohnArb. It was in a downtrend at the time so I let it slide. It didn't show any sign of breaking the trend until Mar 27 when it traded at 46K. It was a false breakout and I was out Apr 1 with a small loss.
Now I waiting for a change in trend to start another position. I'll wait for a higher high and higher low.

The attitude that you'll buy at any price because you are going to hold anyway makes me wonder what is your objective in buying? Do you ever plan on selling? Or does this asset get passed on to whoever survives you? Or does the asset die with you because no one has your key?

savoir · May 9, 2022

deaddog said:
***
Do you ever plan on selling? Or does this asset get passed on to whoever survives you? ***

According to Saylor, most people who buy Bitcoin want to leave it for their grandchildren and great grandchildren. I guess that would make buying Bitcoin for retirement a short-term trade.

To continue with Saylor’s logic, if you are looking to profit in your lifetime before retirement, you are thinking like a Bitcoin scalper. Shame on you!

To add another thought, he may be correct about the timeframe, though. It may take a couple of generations to sort out what happens with MMT and the digital dollar.