Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

johnarb said:
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Things will turn around, I still believe we're in a bull market
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The human spirit is bullish. That is why the markets will always be inherently bullish. Including your fancy coins.

It is the way of things.

 
johnarb said:
Started acquiring TShares again yesterday as the Tomb peg is moving up but not above 1 yet, so anticipating it
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just fyi update

Tomb-peg is moving down away from 1. Derisking Tomb and TShares positions by converting 70% to FTM

If Peg touches 0.95 TWAP will convert the remaining Tomb and TShares to FTM

Basically a focus on FTM for long hodl, which might go below $2. I think FTM hit $1.3sh a few weeks ago
 
I think BTC is so hard to achieve 100k, now the price at around 42k, its drop-in beginning month, but who knows a few years later, when all BTC already minted
 
radex78 said:
...but who knows a few years later, when all BTC already minted
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I read that it will take to like the year 2070 for all BTC to have been discovered.

@johnarb Is there a way that may happen sooner? Like in the next few years, or is it mathematically impossible based on current global hash-rates
 
Overnight said:
I read that it will take to like the year 2070 for all BTC to have been discovered.

@johnarb Is there a way that may happen sooner? Like in the next few years, or is it mathematically impossible based on current global hash-rates
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Year 2140

It's mathematically impossible to speed up block generation

Even if btc goes to $100M each, still cannot speed it up

The reason for this is that even if you can double the hashrate every month, the Bitcoin network difficulty will adjust to be even more difficult every 2 weeks (2016 blocks)

And there's a waiting period for bitcoin mining hardware due to chip shortage right now, months to over a year of waiting

If gold goes to $1M/oz there will be more gold being mined
 
*This post is purely for entertainment purposes only - NFA


Per the subject matter of the thread, I'm trying to figure out if we're in a bear market (crypto winter) and is it time to sell and wait it out a year or two?

https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-price-thread.315402/page-367#post-5519432

  1. I have an idea, we're in a trending market, a bull-bear-bull-bear market
  2. Institutional investors are a blessing and a curse and a blessing and a curse
  3. Bitcoin futures ETF is actually a btc price suppression mechanism just as Coinbase IPO
  4. Fed tapering and tightening may lower the price floor

1 and 2 are somewhat tied together. Institutional investors are great, they push the price of Btc (and all cryptos) to above $60K then they cash out the profits, i.e. Ruffer made $1B in profits last year but was a big contributor to the price crash to below $30K

Then, Institutional Investors started accumulating once again and pushed the price up again to $69K only to book the profits for their yearly rebalancing

These are not my original thoughts, NLW's recent YouTube videos discussed it and Willy Woo in June/July of last year talked about big well capitalized traders buying and selling

They are not Bitcoin and cryptos believers for the long term. Maybe they have an allocation that they will hodl long term, but they are more than happy to trade the price volatility when Btc is pumping they sell/short

So $100K btc may be difficult to reach for the next 1-2 years. Our top of the range may very well be $70K

We can overcome this hurdle if we get more adoption from retail which is happening, the small btc hodlers (and cryptos) have not stopped buying

Currently, 200M bitcoin hodlers worldwide, let's push it to 300-400M+ this year and we may get the $100K btc


3 Meeting the bitcoin and cryptos allocation demand by interested market participants without the actual funds gong into the bitcoin and cryptos ecosystem

Caitlyn Long has a Twitter thread on this. Greg Foss discussed it on one the YouTube videos. This is "similar" to paper gold that is being used to suppress the real price of physical gold

Video below talks about it in the beginning section. I chose this video because it's bearish and a wakeup call to my overly bullish view of bitcoin and cryptos market


4 our price floor may have been $30K btc last year as a good price for Institutional Investors to buy and support but if we have less liquidity because of Fed policy changes, then maybe our price floor might get lower. Wait and see


So how we play this, start selling when we approach $70K and start buying when we go below $30K


 
Interesting contributions johnarb. Being excessively invested in cryptos through various coins and related stocks, the last couple months have been challenging to say the least. I agree with at least a couple of your points, 1. That big money is playing the pump and dump game and cryptos will suddenly find traction again to hit 70-75 before dropping again, all possibly within the year, and 2. Lack of liquidity will impact crypto, just like the tech sector which depends on investments to fund their growth.
 
Pump and dump I think strategy for the big investors, play money to gain money, but still questionable, is it can apply for BTC? Because market cap this coin is the biggest one.
 
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