I am posting every month the evolution in another crypto thread where was predicted that between 2018 and 2028 BTC would go to 10 MM.
Till today the situation is dramatic for BTC. If the growth would be linear, BTC reached only 0.2942% of the target for todays value. BTC will have to explode massively to still reach the 10MM in 2028.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-is-now-predicted-to-go-to-10m-within-10-years.365970/
We are now again a month later.
LINE1: prices and predictions for 2018 and the same day 10 years later. BTC was in 2018 around 8,500$. Watch the average compounded rate of return that should be generate DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY to reach the target.
LINE2: What was the result after the first 4 years, so 40% of the period already past: BTC is today around
29.420,73$ (was 38,898.07$ last month). Due to the underperformance of the first 4 years, the compounded rate of return for the remaining period should increase around 42% (was 33% last month) to still reach the target.
LINE3: What did in REALITY happen? What was the real return for the first 4 years? The compounded rates of return are all 58% (was 47% last month) lower than needed for the prediction to become reality. So in the first 4 years they were dramatically behind and had difficulties to even get close to 40% (was 50 % last month) of the needed compounded rates of return. The actual returns should be 2.5 times the actual return for the remaining years to reach the target.
Situation april 18:
To reach the target, the actual price of BTC should be $246,145. So the value is $216,723 behind, or BTC reached only 11.95% of the projected price at this moment.
Situation may 21:
The performance of BTC is a huge problem. The opportunity cost is skyrocketting and still increasing. Each day the situation gets worse as the backlog of the real returns versus the needed returns are growing exponentially.
The evolution also shows clearly that only the PRICE matters. And that price does not follow the flow of optimistic news that is posted everywhere to pump up the "value" of BTC. It reminds me of Comical Ali in Bagdad.