its pretty clear you got triggered, buddy. But I can see why you didn’t see how.
Crypto Crash Survivors Could Become Tomorrow’s Amazons, Bank of England Says
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its pretty clear you got triggered, buddy. But I can see why you didn’t see how.
I don't actually agree that inflation is necessary. If everyone knows its 3%, and your employer always gives this to you, then why even bother? Clearly many people don't know how it works, so they are robbed, and many workers don't even get their wages increased by the inflation rate, so they are robbed as well. Inflation is simply a tool by the government to steal your money. They can't flat out tax anymore, so they steal it through inflation.
2nd point is that Jeff Booth wrote a good book called The Price of Tomorrow. He argues that the future, by way of technology, is deflationary. It makes sense. Food production for example is orders of magnitude more efficient now. Technology has replaced the need to buy lots of stuff be it CDs for music consumption, or textbooks for study, etc. Life should be getting cheaper and we should have more time on leisure. But this can't happen within a debt based system. So his thesis is that you have these 2 competing systems. Technology is pushing one way, and the government keeps pushing the other. It won't end well.
I imagine before dollars came along, people knew very well what one ounce of gold bought, and maybe even 1 gram. Using dollars is of course simple, and I doubt this will ever change, but when more people realize the game is up for the USD, their networth will be put more so into things outside of the dollars. Lots of people these days already quote commodities in term of bitcoin and show how against bitcoin, on a long enough time horizon, everything is getting cheaper. I can picture a day where when you get your paycheck, you stash it away in bitcoin and only keep a few dollars on hand to pay bills.
The maximalists argue that bitcoin is more so a store of wealth. It just so happens that with the digital era, its easy to also use as a currency since its easily divisible and easy to exchange.
Honestly, you see these people using their phone to pay since they have an NFC chip and don't need to pull out their plastic credit card? Well people are paying like that with crypto now. They have a software wallet on their phone, and when its time to pay, they open it up, tap the phone, and the transaction is done in seconds. For sure its still a small bucket in terms of where you can do this, but its coming faster than you think.
That will work when there is only one currency. And maybe it will be bitcoin. But I don’t see how any government will allow to give up their monetary policy whether you think it’s a good idea or not.
If there’s deflation, then you won’t spend on something now if you can buy it cheaper tomorrow.
I agree on tech. Maybe that’s why we didn’t have rampant inflation (until last year) despite all the money printing.
it’s been generally accepted economic theory that stable inflation allows for long term planning and deflation is associated with severe recessions. However, economic models change with societies and we might be entering a new paradigm. I don’t know.
edit: regarding the leisure. The economist cited a study done about 10 years ago on leisure time. They found that Americans have the same leisure time now that they did in the 1950s. The difference was the time devoted to house work and work work. With automation (dishwashers, gas lawn mowers), house work became less and people used that time work more. I thought it was interesting.
(Btw - I appreciate this discussion even if we don’t agree)
I agree on tech. Maybe that’s why we didn’t have rampant inflation (until last year) despite all the money printing.
it’s been generally accepted economic theory that stable inflation allows for long term planning and deflation is associated with severe recessions. However, economic models change with societies and we might be entering a new paradigm. I don’t know.
edit: regarding the leisure. The economist cited a study done about 10 years ago on leisure time. They found that Americans have the same leisure time now that they did in the 1950s. The difference was the time devoted to house work and work work. With automation (dishwashers, gas lawn mowers), house work became less and people used that time work more. I thought it was interesting.
(Btw - I appreciate this discussion even if we don’t agree)
***Yawn***
Get some rest. You seem taxed from this.
Store Of Value Definition - Investopedia
A store of value is essentially an asset, commodity, or currency that can be saved, retrieved, and exchanged in the future without deteriorating in value.
Do you really believe that?
I concur.
I agree, but I also think that they may be forced into it. I follow the article that Wolf posts on his website, and there is a trend of central banks holding less US Treasuries. The FED is picking up the slack. So can you imagine if one day less and less people want to hold USD? What can they do? The more rules they create to force people into the dollar, the more people will look for alternatives.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/19/w...ebt-now-30-4-trillion-in-treasury-securities/
I remember reading that the FED can prop up the economy or prop up the dollar, but it can't do both. Now it seems like they want to support the dollar and let asset deflate, but what will this do for people networth, public pension plans, ability for people to pay back debt, etc. As the bitcoin guys say over and over again, when you are on a sinking ship, if you see a life raft, clearly you will swim towards it. Bitcoin might actually be a way to bring some order into a very chaotic monetary future.
Only because you need to get to a new equilibrium. Eventually people need to buy clothes, and food you of course need to buy consistently. Yes, many purchases will be delayed, but we will arrive at a price that seems fair value to buy something you need even if you know it might be cheaper in the future. Sure, most useless garbage that is bought will not be, and so lots of industries and retail will fail, but that is a part of a normal cycle. If a fat person decides to change their life around and become healthy, its not that they need to just slow down overeating (ie. smaller inflation), they need to be in a caloric deficit (ie. deflation) until they arrive at a healthy weight and then maintain this weight.
It will of course be maybe worse than the depression, going through deflation, a debt burst, and a changing monetary system, but there really is no way out. To maintain this system, it needs constant printing. The FED hasn't even started QT yet. Who is gonna buy all those junk bonds when they stop? If the FED just lets them roll off and companies can't expect the FED to buy their garbage anymore, many companies go under. Its inevitable now really. The only question is does it happen in 1 year or 5 or 10.
Bitcoin is inflating as a consistent pace. 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes to the miner who mines the block the fastest. Then about 2024 it will be half this. Its a decelerating inflation that is mathematically certain and predictable.
And I don't even buy generally accepted economic theory. Its all garbage. Its like convincing people there is a god. It works for poor people, to appease them, to keep them from revolting by promising them a better after life while they get screwed here on earth. Its a total lie used to control, just like inflation being good for you.
Nobody can promise the store of value will be linear. Real estate has proven to be, but only the past 20 years maybe. Who knows what the next 20 holds. Gold hasn't moved for 10 years. The dollar is clearly worth about 50% less over the past 20 years I think. SP500 maybe has done well, but do you really trust it for the next 20 years? Its a tough call.