Thing is, I'm not sure this stock market bull run will continue through 2020. I wouldn't be surprised if we stagnate through the election year. I am curious if the December sell off won't trigger bearish sentiment tbh.
Strictly speaking BTC, it saw a doubling in price in 2016. I don't really agree with your valuation, but I don't agree w/ANY valuation regarding crypto....I just don't know what metrics people are using to come up w/them other than a biased gut feeling.
what december sell off.. at the moment the retail dumb money is still fairly short/flat, so the odds favors the rally to continue... nobody knows for sure of course...
cryptos - there is no metrics, which is why these boys can pump them however they want... but to put things in perspective.
- if you consider them as some sort of payment mechanism... Visa is $160b, Master card is $100b... so just 2-3 months ago the cryptos were bigger then the 2 combined?
- if you consider them as some sort of technology play, then SAP is $160b and IBM is $100b... and I have been working as an IT consultant for 20 years... and know fully the maturity and the world wide penetration of these companies.
this is where judgement comes into play right? and I believe this is really a trader's edge... you have a vision that is better than everybody else's.... I think it's a no brainer when you use the above as reference..... just like almost 4 years ago I had this thread 'are we gonna run out of shares'... and the fact is we have been, with the buy backs.
so the cryptos are about a sure bet on the short side as the naz bubble in 2000, except I don't trade it because of the lack of regulation and the ease of manipulation by whoever issue these coins...
really the only sure way to make money with cryptos is to issue your own coins...but of course it's already late in that game.... but it's not completely dead yet... I believe if one is truly passionate about cryptos that's the way to go, either passionate enough to develop it as a use case, or as a scam purely for the money, there is still room to do something to attract money.
but buying coins as investments... at this point is just pure gamble at best... a stupid gamble most likely..