Crushed

[bridenour]

Au contraire, I will be surprised because the very act of my closing my short position indicates that the near term future direction of crude should be lower. So, I will be more surprised if it pops.


It's much like that quantum physics peculiarity whereby the act of watching an experiment determines the outcome:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_effect


Except in my case, rather than simply an observer effect, it is the effect that my closing a position causes the market to move in the direction of that closed position.

It's quite a peculiar phenomenon, really...

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from bridenour:

Au contraire, I will be surprised because the very act of my closing my short position indicates that the near term future direction of crude should be lower.

Except in my case, rather than simply an observer effect, it is the effect that my closing a position causes the market to move in the direction of that closed position.

It's quite a peculiar phenomenon, really...

Did you get stopped out a few minutes ago??? My finger's on the trigger ready to short as soon as you close your position

 

[bridenour]

I should have but i decided to hold until morning on hopes of some general market profit taking, dollar strengthening, etc.

If the dollar is down and oil up at 9am tomorrow, I am closing at that moment.

So, there is the trigger point...get your position ready.

I'll confirm once closed. :-/

 

[bridenour]

I need a one-two punch of some seriously missed earnings and some dire economic reports to create a huge round of profit taking.

not only would this bail me out of this CL situation but I am also ready for a new opportunity to get long.....

Most of my long positions I opened about 7 days ago already skyrocketed and closed, so im ready.

 

[bridenour]

Out of my short CL position at 78.58.

Short at will she should roll over at any minute.

 

[Uncle_Ho]

Sounds good, look for stocks and gold to lead the way.

 

[Uncle_Ho]

Getting short today? Seems like CL could have a major pullback, definately would not be buying today.

 

[bridenour]

I have a long put spread on USO (40/34) that I held onto even when I closed my CL.

I am tempted like all hell to short CL again as I can't imagine it doesn't pull back to 70, but Im going to hold off. Every minor retreat has been treated as a buying opportunity recently and my guess is the same will be true here (for the market in general).

Hopefully my USO position pays at some point...its a Jan expiry so ive got some time.

 

[bridenour]

And down she goes....that didn't take long.

 

[Uncle_Ho]

I have to say that put spread seems like a real shitty trade. Just my opinion, so many better sure bets out there, why do you want to gamble on the one thing in the world that everyone needs. There is really no limit on what oil could be, gas is cheap right now, and even at $100 people will still use the same amount.

And if you look at a one year chart of USO, it looks like the worst short ever from here.