Crushed

Yes, it is quite fortuitous for them.

I am having a hard time believe and/or accepting that crude can maintain these prices given the current industrial slump and slow consumer spending.

I know its going up eventually, but it seems premature.

I'm thinking about going down with the ship on this one.
 
Quote from bridenour:

I'm thinking about going down with the ship on this one.
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Famous words...

Remember there was no fundamental reason for $150 last year...
 
Quote from bridenour:

I am having a hard time believe and/or accepting that crude can maintain these prices given the current industrial slump and slow consumer spending.

I know its going up eventually, but it seems premature.

I'm thinking about going down with the ship on this one.
More...


You are picking the wrong battle man I'm telling you. I've been doing this for a while, and oil does not have any reason to correct yet, If anything I would be long up to 85-100. There are better shorts out there, like natural gas, treasuries, or STOCKS. Gold is like crude and pegged to the dollar they are.

I would go in every day saying there is a 50/50 shot of this going up or down from this price level, and trade whatever the chart gives you. I definately would not be fading 2-3dollar price moves from this level.
 
Yeah, i've changed my mind. I've got a short CL position I'm going to close out tonight or tomorrow morning.

I have long January put spread on USO that I am going to leave in place.

I still believe that people are being mislead on this oil runup -- meaning its a case where people think they are seeing a repeat of what happened in 2007, and there is going to be a quick rude awakening.

However, no sense trying to pick tops. I need to stick to going with the trend.

The only reason I started this short CL move was to act as a hedge against my mostly long equities portfolio.

I will close out my long put position when oil hits 70.

I do think the market and oil are both likely to drop this week, but of course earnings will be the largest determinant of that.
 
Quote from bridenour:

I still believe that people are being mislead on this oil runup -- meaning its a case where people think they are seeing a repeat of what happened in 2007, and there is going to be a quick rude awakening.
More...

Yeah, it's what the greatest number of people THINK that drives the markets.

When I see retailers hitting 5 year highs and many more near Oct 2007 highs, it seems fundamentally irrational.

When I see a coffee wholesaler trading at a P/E of 60, it seems fundamentally irrational.

Sure these are well run companies that have weathered the storm well, but where is the growth priced into these stocks going to come from? From all the no-qualifying cheap easy credit that the banks are offering consumers again now?

But for the traders and investors who followed the crowd, fundamentally irrational was unimportant.

Hmmm...I think I just discovered what's holding me back from becoming a trading superstar. I think rationally. :confused:
 
Quote from bridenour:

Yeah, i've changed my mind. I've got a short CL position I'm going to close out tonight or tomorrow morning.
More...

When the last bears capitulate, the market reverses.

Damn, those 10 years didn't teach you anything.
 
Yes, i fully realize that I will close out my CL position tonight or tomorrow and crude will probably drop $3 - $5 this week. It won't be the first time.

However, it was not a good trade, doesn't follow my basic system.

I would love to be the type of trader who builds positions slowly against the trend and then rides out the storm until things ultimately turn my way. Maybe some day I will be.

However, for now, I need to stick to trading in the direction of the prevailing trend, and with crude that is up and will in all likelihood continue to be up for the next few years.

We will see....maybe I will put in a stop at $79 just on the potential that there is a quick reversal...doubtful though. I'm guessing crude breaks $80 first and then reverses. We'll see.
 
I'm continually executing a short position on the stock market, just slowly building it up for the huge consumer dump at the end of the year and poor 4Q earnings. LOL.

Also you should be equally suprised if crude pops 3-5$ over the next week. You will be like damn I missed it if you bail and it breaks, but if it pops you probably wont be equally suprised.
 
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