the "real value"
in the short term, the "real value" of a commodity, where price is set in a two way auction market, is the price the market imposes.
at least from a trader's perspective.
that is what two way auction markets DO - they determine value via the price discovery process
you can argue the "real value" of oil is $30 if u want. depends on what metric u use - it's utility, it's relative scarcity/supply, the cost of extraction, etc.
heck, marx said "labor is value", so you can use that metric as well
but if you are a trader, you best be cognizant that the market determines what value is.
again, in my investment account, i might agree with you, but in that case i would be willing to buy weakness, sell strength, and wait for regression to a mean
as a trader, that would be a recipe for margin calls and losing money
in the short term, the "real value" of a commodity, where price is set in a two way auction market, is the price the market imposes.
at least from a trader's perspective.
that is what two way auction markets DO - they determine value via the price discovery process
you can argue the "real value" of oil is $30 if u want. depends on what metric u use - it's utility, it's relative scarcity/supply, the cost of extraction, etc.
heck, marx said "labor is value", so you can use that metric as well
but if you are a trader, you best be cognizant that the market determines what value is.
again, in my investment account, i might agree with you, but in that case i would be willing to buy weakness, sell strength, and wait for regression to a mean
as a trader, that would be a recipe for margin calls and losing money