crude to $55 . . . how about $34 ?

[Wallace]

previously Aug 26, gold @ $113: '. . . to be followed by one or three more waves
down . . . '
the Sep 16 L was $90.50 - close enough to be the fibo number series 89
many have forecast crude to $50, mine's $55 to continue the fibo number series

dual M and D chart attached: on the M i left the blue fibo on but the main ones are
the white and black, black 61.8 is $56 and white 76.4 is $50, not much to choose
between them

the waves of this decline are seen on the D chart displaying a possible 5 waves
scenario, a scenario that takes crude to $34
it could be said that crude has taken over one hundred years to reach $147 and
3 months to drop 50% of that amount, so what's another 35 bucks ?

whatever the true value of crude it's now catching-up with the state of the economy
and the state of the economy is . . . what ? s , l , o , w , l , y , collapsing ?
opec - the 'Arabs' aren't in a position to stop the production of crude in order to
protect price, no one's going to come and give them a financial rescue package
they have to take anything they can get for their product or go bankrupt, so don't
think $34's too low
gold rallied from $100 in 1976 to $873 in 1980 dropping to the 76.4 at $282 in 1985
the period when crude first broke $40 in 1980 then dropped during the 'recession' of
the 80s to ten bucks, and when you look at a Monthly line chart,
crude still hasn't broken its fall

 

[libertad]

Good charts....

We are entering a period whereby hedge funds and insurance companies are going to have some tough losers....along with some big name banks....

Also....this will be a period where the Fed runs out of bullets on downward rates......

Yeah...it can happen.....

I hope it does.....

Give Chavez, The Sand People, and Bush cronies an overdue little present....

 

[nazzdack]

....don't forget Putin.

 

[Wallace]

the $90+ drop looks like 3 waves, has hit $55 and has no need to go lower to be
W A of a bull market ABC Correction - several years, but could pop to $50

we don't know how bad the recession/depression will become, there's still a chance
prices could break $55, possibly falling to $34 in early 09

so currently there may be a W 4 to come, forming more quickly than the previous
W 1-2 then dropping to $34 completing a W 5

the chart illustrates fibo targets based on this current W 3

 

[bbqbbq]

if crude falls to 34.. wouldn't the shorters worry about the fundamentals? if it costs more then $34 on average to extract a barrel of oil.. then won't the supply automaticly dry up thus causing rise in price? where fundamentals overtake technical signals?

 

[clacy]

Quote from bbqbbq:

if crude falls to 34.. wouldn't the shorters worry about the fundamentals? if it costs more then $34 on average to extract a barrel of oil.. then won't the supply automaticly dry up thus causing rise in price? where fundamentals overtake technical signals?

If crude headed that low, the dollar would surely strengthen quite a bit more, bringing the real cost of extraction down significantly.

 

[BlindLemonBoosh]

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=128919

 

[index_trad3r]

critical support at $14 it will reach that by the end of this year

 

[Wallace]

Quote from bbqbbq:
if crude falls to 34.. wouldn't the shorters worry about the fundamentals? if it costs more then $34 on average to extract a barrel of oil.. then won't the supply automaticly dry up thus causing rise in price? where fundamentals overtake technical signals?

a fundamental you're not including is just how bad the economics are, although
i haven't seen any projections of where and when the bottom will be - ie what will
the high of unemployment be, how many companies, businesses, individuals will go
out of business/declare bankruptcy, and, how long will it take for a recovery to begin

a reduction in business activity - world wide - means fewer company cars, fewer
tradesman vans/pickups, reduced air travel, consumer budgets/spending reduced
trips to the mall and so on. oil sands projects in both Alberta and Saschatchewan
are stopped for the forseeable future but producers have to sell at whatever price
they can get, which is The fundamental regardless of the cost of production

i'm a chartist, ew user and consider fundamental info, but fundamental info is so
variable it's nigh on impossible to make consistent rules based on it, there's imo
even more conjecture associated with fundamentals than ta/charting/ew which is
why i stick with charting and make bets on my analysis rather than fundamentals

as you can see on the chart (link) between 1980 and 2000 the average per barrel
price was $15 between the peak/low of $40 - $9
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?chart_type=line&recession_bars=Off&s[1][id]=OILPRICE

these crude oil threads of mine and gold are based on the idea that crude and gold in
particular 'appear' to - in a gross manner, interact with the Fibonacci numbers thereby
providing future price targets, but it isn't a trading system in itself, and i missed calling
the turn at $144-7 - a gross oversight - so i don't always have all the answers
i'm just using the fibo numbers so if crude drops to $43 then rallies, ok, and if we go into
a severe depression for a couple of years, maybe we'll see crude at $9 again - who knows ?

 

[ogarbitrage]

Quote from index_trad3r:

critical support at $14 it will reach that by the end of this year

$14 by the end of what year?