Crude Oil

[countryBoy641]

Up more than $2.00 today.
The old high (in the futures) was $85.41.
The way it's running, that's not far off.
This is a big bottoming pattern.
Some oil pundits been saying that recently:
"The cheap stuff is all gone"
Too bad the FED can't print some Crude Oil.

 

[Handle123]

Am waiting for crude to go up few bucks more than it be long term sell/hedge signal.

 

[bone]

You need to look at the dated expiries like N 23.

 

[countryBoy641]

You need to look at the dated expiries like N 23.

OK, that means Nov 2023 ???
Frankly, I don't think that matters.
The chart I posted is monthly bars, 16 year range.
I'm watching for a "paradigm shift" in commodity prices.
(that means $WTIC at all time highs next few years).
Time premiums don't matter much, I don't think.

 

[bone]

1. N is July, and

2. An awful lot of professional Crude traders in Houston would beg to differ with you about the importance of Contango and Backwardation in the Crude markets.

Time premiums don't matter much, I don't think.

 

[countryBoy641]

Yes, I am aware how Contango and Backwardation work.
I just don't trade futures contracts, so I don't follow those data points.
You maybe correct. My apologies.
My positions right now are in the AG space (grains).
They are working OK (just slightly underperforming the $SPX past 18 months),
without all the sleepless BS overnights of being in the $SPX.

 

[xandman]

@bone Are you calling a repeat of last Nov?

 

[countryBoy641]

$WTIC closed new recovery high today - $85.54.
And $TNX strong close to $1.865
A very clear message to the FED, as in the old Chinese Proverb/Curse:
"May you have an interesting day."

 

[Handle123]

Am waiting for crude to go up few bucks more than it be long term sell/hedge signal.

It's a major sell for me long term above 87.00, don't know if it's the top or not. Took over 100 tries selling Indexes and don't know if highs are in, but I stick with my rules since 1991. I love trading commodities long term.

 

[countryBoy641]

It's a major sell for me long term above 87.00, don't know if it's the top or not. Took over 100 tries selling Indexes and don't know if highs are in, but I stick with my rules since 1991. I love trading commodities long term.

Not that it's any of my business, but why do you think it's a major sell above $87.00 ??
Should oil producers be compelled to sell it to you at the old prices?