Crude Oil

schizo · Apr 9, 2020

We're going down to 17-ish. Until then, they're gonna shake you down every step of the way. Up-down-up-down-up-down...

farmerjohn1324 · Apr 9, 2020

schizo said:
We're going down to 17-ish. Until then, they're gonna shake you down every step of the way. Up-down-up-down-up-down...

I read that if today's meeting didn't go as well as hoped, that's exactly what could happen. That's why I sold.

@Overnight

Overnight · Apr 9, 2020

schizo said:
We're going down to 17-ish. Until then, they're gonna shake you down every step of the way. Up-down-up-down-up-down...

He was in October, remember?

farmerjohn1324 · Apr 9, 2020

Overnight said:
He was in October, remember?

It wasn't very well thought out.

I wouldn't want to have to hold it at $17 just hoping it will go back up to $45.

Overnight · Apr 9, 2020

farmerjohn1324 said:
I read that if today's meeting didn't go as well as hoped, that's exactly what could happen. That's why I sold.

@Overnight

If you really want to try the true effect of a swing, take one contract for, oh, Aug 2022. That'll put hair on your ass. But at least you will be able to survive the margin requirements...?

farmerjohn1324 · Apr 9, 2020

Overnight said:
If you really want to try the true effect of a swing, take one contract for, oh, Aug 2022. That'll put hair on your ass. But at least you will be able to survive the margin requirements...?

Is that because it's less volatile?

I did some reading about contango. But how would that affect me in this case?

Overnight · Apr 9, 2020

farmerjohn1324 said:
Is that because it's less volatile?

I did some reading about contango. But how would that affect me in this case?

No, it is because you are giving youself a ton of breathing room for the trade to work. Although, there is something worrying coming out of the CME.

I was reticent to post this while you were in your position, but since you are out, it is safe to post it and for you to ruminate upon. The market is always full of possibilities!...

------------------------
Changes to Price and Strike Price Eligibility Flags for Certain Energy Products
Today Sunday, April 5 (trade date Monday, April 6), as an operational step toward potentially supporting negative pricing and strikes, the MDP 3 Security Definition (tag 35-MsgType=d) for these Energy outright futures and options on CME Globex will be flagged as eligible to trade at negative prices. The options on futures will also be flagged as negative strike price eligible.

Trading at negative prices for these outright markets will not be supported at this time. Negative strike prices will not be listed.

Negative order prices will be rejected with Execution Report (tag 35-MsgType=8) message:

Reject code tag 103-OrdRejReason = 1012
Tag 58-Text=<’Price must be greater than zero'>

Any changes will be published in future CME Globex Notices.

Negative trade price instruments, and negative strike price eligible instruments, are identified in the MDP 3.0 Security Definition (tag 35-MsgType=d), in repeating group tag 871-InstAttribType:

tag 872-InstAttribValue= 9: Negative Strike Eligible
tag 872-InstAttribValue=10: Negative Price Eligible
tag 872-InstAttribValue= 14: Zero Price Eligible

------------------------

And this...

https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/clearing/2020/04/Chadv20-152.pdf

They are hoping for the best but planning for the worst, it seems.

@bone Any insight on that .PDF statement about negative spreads? The "Bachelier model"?

systematictrader · Apr 9, 2020

farmerjohn1324 said:
True.

I must have had a crystal ball to sell it at 36.12.

i
Sold
N bought twice today round trip each

it feels good considering i dont know how to day trade,,, net long with the half that i swing and still long of course the half that i never sell for now

schizo · Apr 9, 2020

farmerjohn1324 said:
Is that because it's less volatile?

I did some reading about contango. But how would that affect me in this case?

Do you know why 95% of the traders fail? There could be a myriad of reasons, but my own opinion is that they don't "specialize" until they become really good at it. This is especially true when it comes to futures. I encourage you to stick to 1 instrument until you can read its price behavior like the back of your hand. This can take years. But it will be well worth it in the end.

SteveH · Apr 9, 2020

GuerrillaTrading said:
Oil at resistance and a gap to fill. Will oil fill the Gap sooner or later? It's trading at plenty of resistance and price action bearish in the last few days. As traders await supply cut details there's many questions still looming. The fact is there is huge over supply and low demand and those dynamics paint bearish price action on a chart such as gaps down and probable follow thru gaps. With the current meeting going on, this is a known catalyst which will propel oil prices one way or the other. If oil goes higher from here there is still more resistance above where the gap is. However, oil is in a overall down trend and price action will confirm direction and continuation of trend. I think the gap above will probably be filled later rather than sooner.

View attachment 224528

I wouldn't get too caught up in technicals on this one. You had a perfect storm of Rus/SA gaming plus the World demand shutdown on pandemic.

US won't allow sub-$20 for any drawn-out duration. SA isn't going to F with T over this as the seriousness intensifies.