Crude Oil to $144

electric cars, electric cars.

They will be the death of the oil industry. As for the price of oil.....that's different.

With less demand comes less production, which means oil will probably be a very expensive commodity right till the last drop.

For that reason alone, i am a long term bull. Short term, we have lots to drop before Christmas.
 
I am pretty confident it will fail at just below $100 on the first attempt (although I will use puts just in case). It is very rare for a market to take out such a key psychological level at the first effort.

IMO short oil at $95 for a nice $10-15 drop.

Longer-term, I agree it is likely to go way beyond $100. I just don't know the timing, so why speculate on it.
 
Quote from gnome:

Could be right.

The Peak Oil advocates are concerned that supply will be unable to meet demand starting in a year or two. I doubt it.

There are TONS of oil in Canadian oil sands and Colorado oil shale. If the price stays high enough and the demand strong enough, those resources will become commercially viable and will be developed along with the greater acceptance of automobiles which are partly or all electric.
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That will take years though to match the supply deficit. Yes the oil is there, but getting it out of the ground in sufficient quantities is going to take a long time and a lot of capital. They cannot increase capacity assuming $85 oil, in case it falls back to $50-60, so they will underinvest for the near-term. And don't forget, the Middle East is *running out* of oil. There has not been a major field discovered there for 3 decades.

In any case, you can hedge this issue by going long the oil sands companies. That way you benefit from oil supply shortage (since prices will go up), and when the oil sands cos finally meet the shortgage, you benefit from that too (as they increase volume more than enough to offset falling margins as oil peaks & falls). Plus their stocks are assuming an avg oil price *way* lower than the current market price. Buy buy buy.
 
I've very briefly exchanged opinions on oil with a guy that lives & works for an oil Co in Qatar and his opinion was that there is a lack of refineries. He added that these are 'magical times' at the mo.
 
mr wallace

care to project some numbers for gold and silver if we reach amything close to those crude projections of yours ?
 
hi SethArb, won't bother updating my gold thread, current gold price popped the 376.4/361.8
276.4/261.8 fibos and # 8/9 line, so I'd be looking at the $1060 - $1100 area, the next set of
fibo levels 476.4 - 361.8 and # 10/11 line

I don't have silver data but eyeballing a chart and base fibo calcs suggest $24+, $30+, $34+ as targets

silver chart looks a lot like the crude chart doesn't it ?
 
Quote from Sparohok:

Compare with Saudi Arabia, a resource of roughly the same total oil in place, which is being produced at 8 or 9 mbpd, and has claimed the ability to increase production by another 5 mbpd in less than a decade.
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Recent reports that Ghawar Field has entered decline are raising doubts about those increased production claims.

They've been water blasting that field for so long just to maintain normal rates of extraction. Any increases are a pipe dream. It's only a matter of time before the water reaches the well head..
 
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