Crude Oil Prediction 2018
- Thread starter radha00027
- Start date
This level of backwardation is puzzling, and it's def not the 350k Vz barrels going offline. I think it's signaling something. Maybe a ton of the July oil has been privately sold?? This is the biggest spread, I think historically. It's the sort of activity you see with a huge shortage (Canada pipeline can get oil to Cushing, so I'm perplexed), or before a war. (??)
On explanation could be the legalization of U.S. crude exports combined with the persistent Brent-WTI spread has caused market fears of an actual tanks-run-dry situation to escalate (incentive to continue exporting U.S. crude oil even with this situation wildly distorting the front of the curve). But I don't really know.
Anyhow, regardless of what it is, it'll become clear in time. Thoughts on how to play it?
I'm holding onto my longs in July. 13 days left, I think I'm going to hold until the last day and roll then. It's clear you you want the front month is you're long. Thoughts?
On explanation could be the legalization of U.S. crude exports combined with the persistent Brent-WTI spread has caused market fears of an actual tanks-run-dry situation to escalate (incentive to continue exporting U.S. crude oil even with this situation wildly distorting the front of the curve). But I don't really know.
Anyhow, regardless of what it is, it'll become clear in time. Thoughts on how to play it?
I'm holding onto my longs in July. 13 days left, I think I'm going to hold until the last day and roll then. It's clear you you want the front month is you're long. Thoughts?
I dumped a little over half tonight. I'll play the correction, but keep some for the weirdness that is going on. If there's a shortage, I want to own some. I'll re-up after the correction is done with the Aug or Sept contract.
I also might not. BZ is not looking healthy, and CL has been losing momentum for a few months. I might just hold these remaining CL contracts up to expiry to see if the spreads continue to widen.
I also might not. BZ is not looking healthy, and CL has been losing momentum for a few months. I might just hold these remaining CL contracts up to expiry to see if the spreads continue to widen.
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Probably the rally hit the speed limit and now producers clear their oil hubs. Spread should widen IMO, because Trump actions make it harder to find clients for US oil
PLEASE tell us how Trump is making it harder to sell US oil. And how Trump is widening out Spreads. Pretty please.