Crude Oil Prediction 2018

The Bahrain 80B barrel discovery announcement didn't seem to have that much effect given what we already know about North American production. To me, it still seems like an equity market correlator pretty much. But it is nice to get some range and some vol in the market - the last six months of 2017 were kinda boring.

I will continue to look for opportunities in the forward curve and in distillates.
 
For me the backwardation displacement and the refining crack spreads are bigger concerns at the moment than the outright flat price per barrel of crude.
 
My price chart on oil/energy interpretation at this point of time is; Oil has run reasonably hard up, there is now a breather going on, a lull in any further advance. "Where to from here?" the market is asking.
I'm sitting on just one oil related position since Apr 4&5th and watching very closely the first signs of price failure. However it may begin to run again so a danger of exiting too early. Therefore for me I'm on heightened alert.
 
themickey said:
My price chart on oil/energy interpretation at this point of time is; Oil has run reasonably hard up, there is now a breather going on, a lull in any further advance. "Where to from here?" the market is asking.
I'm sitting on just one oil related position since Apr 4&5th and watching very closely the first signs of price failure. However it may begin to run again so a danger of exiting too early. Therefore for me I'm on heightened alert.
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Your position might be safe due to Pompeo/Qatar news. More volatile too!
 
My Crude Oil Weekly Price and Volatility Forecast for 2018

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donnap said:
I like your charts. And your forecast is interesting.

Low 30s to nearly 90 over the next couple of months? I doubt it.

Take out the dip and you may have something there.
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Well if he thinks he's right he should be buying straddles out the wazoo IMO.
 
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