Hardly anyone was buying at $100 I certainly would have shorted the first strike of that number if I traded Oil itself. The same thing happened at $70. Doesn't change the fact that $110-$120 is clearly a possibility. Now if you bought Oil producers you are laughing. Short term traders often get distracted by noise and fail to see the bigger picture. You could for example have bought Baytex at $4.84 a week ago or even at $5.03 yesterday after they reported, and that's at $5.71 now. That was a very likely outcome if you did the research.
Crude Oil on the Run Again. $100 in Sight!
- Thread starter RedSun
- Start date
Hardly anyone was buying at $100 I certainly would have shorted the first strike of that number if I traded Oil itself. The same thing happened at $70. Doesn't change the fact that $110-$120 is clearly a possibility. Now if you bought Oil producers you are laughing. Short term traders often get distracted by noise and fail to see the bigger picture. You could for example have bought Baytex at $4.84 a week ago or even at $5.03 yesterday after they reported, and that's at $5.71 now. That was a very likely outcome if you did the research.
Another way to play it as an American would be buying Crescent Point ( Cdn mid cap ) in advance of earnings Wednesday. Listed on the NYSE. Especially if it dips 3-5%, but if WTI drops below $89 I would pass.
I'm going to call WTI touching $110 some time this week, and an outside possibility that Gold hits $2000 and Nat Gat $5.50+. Speculative guess.
Whether or not your calls are good, you're smart because you're correctly focused on trading what's genuinely tradable.
I'll agree with you on none of that. Especially the NG trade. We are going into warming season. April contract is our last cold weather month trade, and it's only at $4.5. GC is kinda possible, but we'd need VIX to hit 50 IMHO for gold to get there. I sense Putin will cave before we get there, because we the people and shit.
The exact numbers may not work out but the gist of the trade is. I'm banking a lot of cash on the moves; today there will be more news on Oil so it's a tight rope between massively going for it ( I'm fairly heavily weighted into today despite some sells yesterday late ) and some caution on getting caught on a pull back. If I can get some more Oil stock at a small gap up I will.
Nat Gas I partially agree with you except the wild card is a severe EU nat gas shortage and how that translates in NA. I'd rather be long then short but I currently hold no positions because Oil was a better play. I was in Crew Energy a junior until Friday morning took a profit but left money on the table.
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lol...I always make bank fading your trades...and here I will go ALL IN.
Summer getting hot as Africa all over the US and air conditioning runs off NG powered electric plants. Summer driving season is the heaviest of the Gas demand and people have especially been locked down and are ready to get out, as we hit spring and into the summer. I would say that, speaking about the US particularly, NG and oil will be in higher demand this summer than in this current winter season. Its sounds like you are trying to somehow lump Oil and NG under a Heating Oil trading logic??
NG and Oil ONLY Bidding up in cold winter is an Old European antiquated dynamic..an era that harks back to Victorian times. It might still be true in Eastern Europe today...but not true anywhere else since hotter summers, air con in every house and business and long driving vacations in summer.
I don't trade European contracts nor Brent, My trading is based on US supply and demand. But last time I was in Europe in Summer it was hot as fck and cars were traveling all over the country side on holiday. In Fact, Europe is known for months and months long summer holidays.
So, yes, I am very long going into the Spring in both NG and Oil.
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