Crude oil market looks short term toppy

[detective]

Today seems to have been a key reversal day for crude oil, I've been very bullish on crude oil for the past several months, but the price action over the past several days tells me a short term top is in place. I don't see $150 crude by July 4, as one analyst predicted. We'll probably be lower on July 4 than we are today.

By no means would I short this market, just seeing the risk/reward ratio on the long side to be neutral to slightly negative at this point, not enough for me to want to short this monster. But I think there will be better long entries later in the year than right now. Still think $200+ crude will be a reality by 2010.

 

[JDConner]

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1812073,00.html

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from detective:

Today seems to have been a key reversal day for crude oil, I've been very bullish on crude oil for the past several months, but the price action over the past several days tells me a short term top is in place. I don't see $150 crude by July 4, as one analyst predicted. We'll probably be lower on July 4 than we are today.

By no means would I short this market, just seeing the risk/reward ratio on the long side to be neutral to slightly negative at this point, not enough for me to want to short this monster. But I think there will be better long entries later in the year than right now. Still think $200+ crude will be a reality by 2010.

One of these days, everything will line up perfectly.

 

[jasonjm]

wow, closed all my shorts

lets see

1) nasty daily candle yesterday
2) 2 weeks after that huge daily spike (which still has not had a significant retracement IMO)
3) govt intervention in position sizing
4) saudi conference
5) even the president of iran saying oil is overpriced


BUT

oil still does not make any significant move down......

this is setting up for another short squeeze again, which i dont want to be part of

FLAT. I'll try pick a top again at 150+

 

[ebayuser]

today, oil is called up a little over a doller premarket. Isn't this massive run up in the price of oil being attributed to supply/ demand? Someone tell me what caused the supply/ demand fundamentals to change over night? I just do not get the current movements in the crude oil price. What am I missing?

 

[jasonjm]

Quote from ebayuser:

today, oil is called up a little over a doller premarket. Isn't this massive run up in the price of oil being attributed to supply/ demand? Someone tell me what caused the supply/ demand fundamentals to change over night? I just do not get the current movements in the crude oil price. What am I missing?

you missing the fact that there is no reason to sell crude

no reason to buy it either.

But the shorts keep getting squeezed and forced to buy back, because the longs are in it for the long haul, so they dont get gamed out of their positions.

anyways thats my take.