Crude Oil Journal

[Spectre2007]

no stops for this system, it stops itself out based on future action.

some assumptions:

1) all price movement is random
2) in a basket of 20 or more commodities, some will go parabolic over a multiyear span.
3) the excursion will be greater then a specified amout of retrace.
4) pyramiding into the excursion, geometrically 1,2,4,8,16,32,64..etc..

there are some commodities that hit n(pyramid level)=8, or more in excursion.

n
1 = 1
2 = 2
3 = 4
4 = 8
5 = 16
6 = 32
7 = 64
8 = 128

 

[Spectre2007]

crude expectations. Price can meet the bands or bands can meet the price.

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from Spectre2007:

no stops for this system, it stops itself out based on future action.

some assumptions:

1) all price movement is random
2) in a basket of 20 or more commodities, some will go parabolic over a multiyear span.
3) the excursion will be greater then a specified amout of retrace.
4) pyramiding into the excursion, geometrically 1,2,4,8,16,32,64..etc..

there are some commodities that hit n(pyramid level)=8, or more in excursion.

n
1 = 1
2 = 2
3 = 4
4 = 8
5 = 16
6 = 32
7 = 64
8 = 128

Copper hit 9N
OJ hit 6N
Lumber , Mexican Peso, 1 month LIBOR, Australian Dollar, Euro Fx, and Cotton hit 5N

 

[Spectre2007]

One could argue that intraday entrainment is stronger then longer (daily) entrainment.

2 components of entrainment

-emotion
-memory

 

[Spectre2007]

The commodities with the greatest N at the current moment are:

Cotton 5N
Lumber 5N
OJ 5N

Australian Dollar 3N
British Pound 3N
Euro 3N
Natural Gas 3N

BP and Euro only active N's.

 

[Spectre2007]

breaking trendline in AH.

 

[Spectre2007]

major short covering, given the macro situation, further selling on increase, expected.

low as 71.50 in AH, 73.50 today.

 

[Spectre2007]

some headers..

ES = 1484
USDJPY = 117.00


usdjpy....at 115.69 currently..expected retrace to 116.00 next 12 hrs.

if the rate fails to meet this expectation, then it adds further credence, that the last 8 hr action was a countertrend macro move, to revitalize cap reserves.

 

[OldTrader]

Quote from Spectre2007:

no stops for this system, it stops itself out based on future action.

some assumptions:

1) all price movement is random
2) in a basket of 20 or more commodities, some will go parabolic over a multiyear span.
3) the excursion will be greater then a specified amout of retrace.
4) pyramiding into the excursion, geometrically 1,2,4,8,16,32,64..etc..

there are some commodities that hit n(pyramid level)=8, or more in excursion.

n
1 = 1
2 = 2
3 = 4
4 = 8
5 = 16
6 = 32
7 = 64
8 = 128

What is a "pyramid level"? How is it established? What is an "excursion"? Knowing how you're using these terms enables one to follow along.

OldTrader

 

[Spectre2007]

pyramid level, means a position multiplier. Excursion means, retrace or move, the pyramid level comes into effect when prices move and extend yearly ranges.