Crude Oil Inventories - February 18th 2021

J

JamesThatcher

DOE Crude Forecast is -2426
DOE Gasoline is +1397
API Actual Crude is -5800
API Actual Gasoline is +3900
Will, therefore, use a forecast of = -4000 for Crude oil
Will, therefore, use a forecast of = +2500 for Gasoline
Remember that OIL is a commodity, so more oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!! Check out the great move that API private report created last night here! Nice spike and continuation!
See charts here...
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=29263;t=2021-02-17;r=M1Last week's DOE report didn't trigger for us but was very close!
See charts here....
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28647;t=2021-02-10;r=M1Trade plan...
For non-slip platforms will use a timeout of 100ms
For platforms with slippage will use a timeout of 500msT1 = 3900 dev, with max conflict of 1500 on Gasoline
T2 = 4900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline
T3 = 6000 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline

Additionally, we can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750

On platforms that allow slippage control, we can run the same setup but allow GAS conflicts up to 5000 on all triggers.
 
Nowadays traders don't really bother about the Wednesday oil inventory data release.

Traders might be interested in weather forecasts (see Texas power supply).
and We focus on the charts and not those numerous , complex , difficult-to-comprehend inventory numbers.

only the oil / gasoline factory managers are interested in those
numerous , complex , difficult-to-comprehend inventory numbers, T1T2T3 API, milli seconds, max / min conflict .... things.
 
Last edited:
JamesThatcher said:
DOE Crude Forecast is -2426
DOE Gasoline is +1397
API Actual Crude is -5800
API Actual Gasoline is +3900
Will, therefore, use a forecast of = -4000 for Crude oil
Will, therefore, use a forecast of = +2500 for Gasoline
Remember that OIL is a commodity, so more oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!! Check out the great move that API private report created last night here! Nice spike and continuation!
See charts here...
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=29263;t=2021-02-17;r=M1Last week's DOE report didn't trigger for us but was very close!
See charts here....
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28647;t=2021-02-10;r=M1Trade plan...
For non-slip platforms will use a timeout of 100ms
For platforms with slippage will use a timeout of 500msT1 = 3900 dev, with max conflict of 1500 on Gasoline
T2 = 4900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline
T3 = 6000 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline

Additionally, we can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750

On platforms that allow slippage control, we can run the same setup but allow GAS conflicts up to 5000 on all triggers.
More...

And it all came crashing down. CL stopped making sense years ago. Huge drawdown, yet prices dropped.
 
“The elephant in the room is Saudi Arabia’s gift of 1 million barrels a day in extra cuts. If the gift is snatched back, prices cannot do else but decline.”
--Bjornar Tonhuagen, Rystad
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top