Crude Oil - how could anybody not be bullish?

countryBoy641

countryBoy641

"Recency bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones; a memory bias. Recency bias gives "greater importance to the most recent event",[1] such as the final lawyer's closing argument a jury hears before being dismissed to deliberate."
Wiki

I just saw a guy on youtube claim that crude oil is going to $40/barrell because ... that's what is always does in a recession. Oh, really??
What if there just any cheap oil left. like the fable of "Jed Clampett shooting at some foor, and up from the ground comes some bubbling crude"

Take a look at 40 years of crude.
I think we are going into triple digits very soon, and probably never look back.
People who think all of life is a ''cakewalk" invariably find that life is really made of thorns, not cake, and everybody has to learn to run, not walk.
My .02 cents.
And most of you folks who don't trade oil, please use caution.
This kind of market is bad for most stocks.

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Looks like a trading range to me. Well below the highs of 2022 to say nothing of 2008 (back when I was into Peak Oil doomerism).

The thing about oil is that it’s critically important, but we use it with almost fantastic wastefulness. Gas guzzling SUVs, road trips for the hell of it, flying the family of four to Disney World, etc. Demand destruction comes thick and fast once you get into triple digits as there’s a ton of low-hanging fruit to make economies. Barring a catastrophic supply shock I’d say the next big secular bull in oil will be a grinding, stop-and-go affair.
 
countryBoy641 said:
"Recency bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones; a memory bias. Recency bias gives "greater importance to the most recent event",[1] such as the final lawyer's closing argument a jury hears before being dismissed to deliberate."
Wiki

I just saw a guy on youtube claim that crude oil is going to $40/barrell because ... that's what is always does in a recession. Oh, really??
What if there just any cheap oil left. like the fable of "Jed Clampett shooting at some foor, and up from the ground comes some bubbling crude"

Take a look at 40 years of crude.
I think we are going into triple digits very soon, and probably never look back.
People who think all of life is a ''cakewalk" invariably find that life is really made of thorns, not cake, and everybody has to learn to run, not walk.
My .02 cents.
And most of you folks who don't trade oil, please use caution.
This kind of market is bad for most stocks.

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Well, allow me to play the devil's advocate. I think there's a good chance we go down in the near term.

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countryBoy641 said:
"Recency bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones; a memory bias. Recency bias gives "greater importance to the most recent event",[1] such as the final lawyer's closing argument a jury hears before being dismissed to deliberate."
Wiki

I just saw a guy on youtube claim that crude oil is going to $40/barrell because ... that's what is always does in a recession. Oh, really??
What if there just any cheap oil left. like the fable of "Jed Clampett shooting at some foor, and up from the ground comes some bubbling crude"

Take a look at 40 years of crude.
I think we are going into triple digits very soon, and probably never look back.
People who think all of life is a ''cakewalk" invariably find that life is really made of thorns, not cake, and everybody has to learn to run, not walk.
My .02 cents.
And most of you folks who don't trade oil, please use caution.
This kind of market is bad for most stocks.

View attachment 325209
More...
Back to 70.

if Brent breaks 100 it will send inflation soaring.

The Man cannot permit this at this time.
 
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countryBoy641 said:
"Recency bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones; a memory bias. Recency bias gives "greater importance to the most recent event",[1] such as the final lawyer's closing argument a jury hears before being dismissed to deliberate."
Wiki

I just saw a guy on youtube claim that crude oil is going to $40/barrell because ... that's what is always does in a recession. Oh, really??
What if there just any cheap oil left. like the fable of "Jed Clampett shooting at some foor, and up from the ground comes some bubbling crude"

Take a look at 40 years of crude.
I think we are going into triple digits very soon, and probably never look back.
People who think all of life is a ''cakewalk" invariably find that life is really made of thorns, not cake, and everybody has to learn to run, not walk.
My .02 cents.
And most of you folks who don't trade oil, please use caution.
This kind of market is bad for most stocks.

View attachment 325209
More...

crude oil is very good for
day trading, and perhaps swing trading.

It is relatively very bad for position trading.

The monthly chart is inappropriate.

200 volume, 100 volume,
few mins, 1 min, 1 sec ... charts are more appropriate.
 
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