Crude Oil - getting on & riding the horse UP or Down - East? No, West? Never!!

[AfterLOS]

dispensing with the liability of complaints that I'm taking over other people's threads, I'm going monastic, visitors welcome but its going to be a new level of RIDICUL-osity if someone comes to my rental and still complains that I took over the thread


Still SHORT - YAWN (now @ close to 83)

86.42 still remains as the TP full or partial level

YAWN


continuation from here

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/crude-below-90.285869/

 

[AfterLOS]

AfterLOS went unconscious ONCE during internship at ET very recently when reading thru' several posts discussing the "fundamental" aspects of Crude Oil. The sleep I fell into was so pronounced it was the deepest ever.

So in this thread and in just a few paragraphs I will deliver a DEATH blow to "fundamental" anal-ysis once and for all using only CRUDE OIL as an example.

stay tuned

 

[AfterLOS]

June-July 2008: geopolitical forces etc. were hammering the HERD into bellowing thru' a megaphone that Crude was going to go to the moon.

Then the turn came - to them as a total surprise, nothing could explain it. Boom, 70% CRASH

Russia invasion of Georgia big threat to oil production, pipeline thru' Georgia etc., etc., Oil gotta go up, right? But Oil bear-rallied from $90 to $130 but the new downtrend remained intact and continued. Very hard to shake off a new or developed trend

------------------------------------------


June 2014:

"Oil Thirst Rising As Iraq Unrest Boosts Prices… The unrest makes the reopening of a key pipeline from Kirkuk in Iraq to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in Turkey look even more elusive. This points to a systemic and seismic shift geopolitically." (USA Today)

The integrity of another oil pipeline was in jeopardy. The major countries on the map remain in political conflict: Russia, Iraq, Iran, and Syria.

But despite this perfect fundamental backdrop, the "oil thirst" ran dry. From the June 2014 peak, oil prices have plunged 23%. The 4% drop on October 14 was the market's "largest single-day decline in 2 years." (Washington Post)


-------------------------------------------


Bottom line:

Wars, geopolitical unrest, pipelines threatened, oil fields burned and robbed ..... but PRICE didn't give a damn.


Neither do I

 

[AfterLOS]

Still SHORT - YAWN (now @ close to 83)

86.42 still remains as the TP full or partial level

YAWN

For next week ...... Still SHORT ..... $86.42 still remains as the TP full or partial level

 

[AfterLOS]

Alert: Going to plug in a 50% of position TP @ $78.10, play by ear for the rest of position

$75-78 = huge Support = high probability TP zone (Oil hit low of $79.79 last week so real close to this support and must sense its there)

 

[AfterLOS]

For next week ...... Still SHORT ..... $86.42 still remains as the TP full or partial level

SHORT continues unabated

FULL position STOP lowered from $86.42 to $85.03

 

[AfterLOS]

SHORT continues unabated

FULL position STOP lowered from $86.42 to $85.03

End of week Oct 24th, 2014 update:

No change in positions or STOP = $85.03

 

[AfterLOS]

$75-78 = huge Support = high probability TP zone

My Proprietary Fibo Tech. delivers a target in the zone of the quoted text.

= C O N F L U E N C E Z O N E

but my STOP @ $85.03 is my MAIN focus

 

[AfterLOS]

changed STOP to = 82.49 for 60% of position

old STOP = 85.03 still active for the remainder of position

 

[AfterLOS]

Crude's on the move north slowly but nice Macd bars and RSI at 75 degrees, so she gots power.

My STOP will likely be taken out.

Just as well - gotta pay for dinner and booze

But hey, she might see my stop and turn around and head to Argentina

That would be OK too