Crude Oil Down Again. Break $100 Soon

Then load up CL and pray for $150 or even $300 crude price.

Russian oil will find home. Most countries will be happy to pay $20-$30 less for oil. Only those rich "democratic" countries want to pay $120+ oil. They get the money to pay. Then Biden can hand out "gas money" to Americans.

A lot of negative news coming. Iran, China lockdown, Russia Ukraine negotiation etc. And demand destruction too.
 
RedSun said:
Then load up CL and pray for $150 or even $300 crude price.

Russian oil will find home. Most countries will be happy to pay $20-$30 less for oil. Only those rich "democratic" countries want to pay $120+ oil. They get the money to pay. Then Biden can hand out "gas money" to Americans.

A lot of negative news coming. Iran, China lockdown, Russia Ukraine negotiation etc. And demand destruction too.
More...

As usual, I agree with your analysis and I stay grounded as such.

Demand destruction is true. $300 per barrel will never...not even $200 for very long intervals. Your $150 seems pretty spot on as a graduated level on top. But a steady climb as a bullish chart...and to withstand the volatility. I don't look for huge moves in the higher points suddenly. And I take profits as it moves up anticipating the Wash DC controls attempt.

And also. My analysis these days includes the guarantee that the Old Man will fck things up More and More as each day passes. My 2024 analysis will change drastically. 2024 may indeed allow the Big Oil Short.. and some good money made there.
 
Quick Question: I'm bullish on oil prices, but I got asked a question from an older wiser gentleman than myself:

Why do you think oil prices will go up dramatically?

His position was that Global supply of Oil has not changed, he proposed that transportation costs will increase the price of oil, but that will be a nominal impact to the overall price. That while the US is not importing the Russian oil, the 10% that was going to the US is being reallocated into India and China...and from these countries will be re-routed back to the US through other channels.

Summary:
His position was the supply Global Oil supply has not changed, but the route in which the Oil is being received has changed...and its that price change you need to account for and not on a supply shortage.

Thoughts?
 
disciplinedtrader said:
Quick Question: I'm bullish on oil prices, but I got asked a question from an older wiser gentleman than myself:

Why do you think oil prices will go up dramatically?

His position was that Global supply of Oil has not changed, he proposed that transportation costs will increase the price of oil, but that will be a nominal impact to the overall price. That while the US is not importing the Russian oil, the 10% that was going to the US is being reallocated into India and China...and from these countries will be re-routed back to the US through other channels.

Summary:
His position was the supply Global Oil supply has not changed, but the route in which the Oil is being received has changed...and its that price change you need to account for and not on a supply shortage.

Thoughts?
More...

Tell your old man friend to look at the cost of transporting oil, and the fact that some of that Russian crude MAY be a grade of oil we cannot get anywhere else. (Think certain sour grades to produce diesel).
 
Overnight,
I like where you're going and your comment is good, but its still too abstract.
How much sour crude will we not be able to attain anywhere else?
What effect will it have on diesel?

Have a wonderful evening!
 
disciplinedtrader said:
Overnight,
I like where you're going and your comment is good, but its still too abstract.
How much sour crude will we not be able to attain anywhere else?
What effect will it have on diesel?

Have a wonderful evening!
More...

Sorry, we have not signed a NDA. Good luck with your endeavors.

 
Here we go...
CA10Y (Canada's 10 Year Government Bond Yield) as a leading indicator for oil.

VoseKZAf_26d17.png
 
Pricechange said:
As usual, I agree with your analysis and I stay grounded as such.

Demand destruction is true. $300 per barrel will never...not even $200 for very long intervals. Your $150 seems pretty spot on as a graduated level on top. But a steady climb as a bullish chart...and to withstand the volatility. I don't look for huge moves in the higher points suddenly. And I take profits as it moves up anticipating the Wash DC controls attempt.

And also. My analysis these days includes the guarantee that the Old Man will fck things up More and More as each day passes. My 2024 analysis will change drastically. 2024 may indeed allow the Big Oil Short.. and some good money made there.
More...
%%
OK by me if you ''load up CL + pray for $150 or even $300'' That's the main trend+ usually prayers in that direction prosper.
2] Except the way the commercial gasoline dealers have been lowering thier bids\prices\ they must be praying the other way/LOL
3] Congrats on your profits in an election year where most all but trend followers hate hi oil prices.
[4] I wish Stock Traders Almanac had not printed that oil related ....... market is a money game + not a supply + demand game as presented.:D:D.NOT a prediction.
 
treeman said:
Above the 2011 highs, you have to be long oil. Well, you don’t have to be. You can do whatever you want. The R:R is extremely favorable here as that’s a clear line of supply.

good luck trading.
More...
Narratives don’t pay.

price pays.
 
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