Crude Oil - CL specifically

[syswizard]

I know there was a thread on crude not so long ago: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/is-oil-seriously-undervalued-right-now.337406/
However, conditions in the CL market have changed this year as we started out the year with a price near $65/bbl.
We are now around $51 and recently moved below $50 for a short period of time.
$50.50-51.00 appears to be a support level.
I think OPEC has drawn a "line in the sand" at $50....so I suspect they'll announce production cut-backs should prices continue to decline from here.
This could make shorting this market pretty hazardous as they could announce at any time.
Anyone else feel the same way ?

 

[Seaweed]

I know there was a thread on crude not so long ago: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/is-oil-seriously-undervalued-right-now.337406/
However, conditions in the CL market have changed this year as we started out the year with a price near $65/bbl.
We are now around $51 and recently moved below $50 for a short period of time.
$50.50-51.00 appears to be a support level.
I think OPEC has drawn a "line in the sand" at $50....so I suspect they'll announce production cut-backs should prices continue to decline from here.
This could make shorting this market pretty hazardous as they could announce at any time.
Anyone else feel the same way ?
View attachment 218566

Not that I know anything about CL, but if I just look at the daily chart, I see lots of support at 50.70 or so. So a dip below and ride back up seems logical. Also, if you consider that year old low at 42, dropping another 8 dollars for the downside isn't the best trade compared to the potential upside if I consider the range between 50 and 66.

Why are you looking at CL though? You were doing amazing trading ES from what I remember a while back when you showed your stats and trades.

 

[syswizard]

Why are you looking at CL though? You were doing amazing trading ES from what I remember a while back when you showed your stats and trades.

Need to diversify as ES/NQ price action has been muted during RTH.....the moves are occurring after hours.

 

[buttermarket]

ES and NQ from experience is mostly short term gambling volume. totally rigged in the short term
all these LONG TERM short positions or any short hedges are wiped out like the SQQQ or ES short 'funds' the market is too illiquid bro. it illiquid trading the QQQ or that SP 500 ETF..ETF are illiquid. all the volume is in futures specualation and the short ETF are not shorting the stocks they are shorting the futures contracts . funds short to hedge their long positions or hedge funds.

 

[Overnight]

Need to diversify as ES/NQ price action has been muted during RTH.....the moves are occurring after hours.

How can you say ES/NQ price action has been muted during RTH...? Have you not seen the past 10 trading days or so? The fack, man!

 

[syswizard]

How can you say ES/NQ price action has been muted during RTH...? Have you not seen the past 10 trading days or so? The fack, man!

Look at the last 2 days....big up-moves prior to the 9:30 opening......and then, not so much action.

 

[buttermarket]

these daytraders who trade in and out in minutes...they are trading with machines.
known as two tick or two bit traders. dick trader you know..dick man!

 

[buttermarket]

in real market ,,prices don't trade like that. okay. price don't fluctuate by the minute up and down with that kind of volatiility daily. you see only those kinds of volatility in crashes. like when a company declares bankruptcy of some bad event or bad news. man. or black swan event..now its just normal daily market manipulation or something.

this volatility is from corona virus..news. usually bad when market is this volatile.

 

[syswizard]

these daytraders who trade in and out in minutes...they are trading with machines.
known as two tick or two bit traders. dick trader you know..dick man!

Agreed. But if you can play large, you can make a decent living trading those ticks.

 

[_eug_]

IMO CL is setting up for a test of 2018 highs in the mid 70s. These low prices are a buying opportunity for oil stocks and oil ETFs.