Friday September 29, 2023
Crude Oil - 2023
CLX23
NEAR TERM:: NEUTRAL / SLIGHTLY BEARISH
VOLUME STRUCTURE
So far, for the year of 2023, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $95 & $89, with the highest volume around $91, which is the price of neutrality and market balance.
PRICE ACTION
WTI strongly rejected prices above $92, and sold hard after reaching the current 2023 high of $95.
This week ended with WTI settling right near its highest volume price around $91, the price of neutrality and market balance.
OPEN INTEREST
Open Interest (OI) has decreased for the first time since July, reducing the net-quantity of open contracts by about 32,000 contracts.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT)
This week's commitments by large institutional speculative traders will not be published by the CFTC until next week on Friday. However, I will be watching for any reduction in long positions from 442.288k and increase in short positions from 113.862k by institutional speculators.
SOME FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
- Seasonal Demand Destruction (Winter)
- China economy showing weakness
- Global economy showing weakness
- Less travel demand
- High jet fuel & gasoline prices hitting spot market
- Continued USD strength / Expensive Petrodollar
- FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, supporting a strong USD.
- OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5
IDEA::
>>> Strangle or Straddle $91 as of Friday September 29, 2023
I WILL BE UPDATING THIS NEAR-TERM NEUTRAL/BEARISH OUTLOOK ONCE PRICE MOVES AWAY FROM ITS HIGHEST VOLUME PRICE AROUND $91, THE PRICE OF NEUTRALITY AND MARKET BALANCE.
- kPwn
Crude Oil - 2023
CLX23
NEAR TERM:: NEUTRAL / SLIGHTLY BEARISH
VOLUME STRUCTURE
So far, for the year of 2023, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $95 & $89, with the highest volume around $91, which is the price of neutrality and market balance.
PRICE ACTION
WTI strongly rejected prices above $92, and sold hard after reaching the current 2023 high of $95.
This week ended with WTI settling right near its highest volume price around $91, the price of neutrality and market balance.
OPEN INTEREST
Open Interest (OI) has decreased for the first time since July, reducing the net-quantity of open contracts by about 32,000 contracts.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT)
This week's commitments by large institutional speculative traders will not be published by the CFTC until next week on Friday. However, I will be watching for any reduction in long positions from 442.288k and increase in short positions from 113.862k by institutional speculators.
SOME FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
- Seasonal Demand Destruction (Winter)
- China economy showing weakness
- Global economy showing weakness
- Less travel demand
- High jet fuel & gasoline prices hitting spot market
- Continued USD strength / Expensive Petrodollar
- FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, supporting a strong USD.
- OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5
IDEA::
>>> Strangle or Straddle $91 as of Friday September 29, 2023
I WILL BE UPDATING THIS NEAR-TERM NEUTRAL/BEARISH OUTLOOK ONCE PRICE MOVES AWAY FROM ITS HIGHEST VOLUME PRICE AROUND $91, THE PRICE OF NEUTRALITY AND MARKET BALANCE.
- kPwn
