crude light marathon

[clightmarathon]

Quote from NoDoji:

When trading in the direction of a well-defined trend, I suggest leaving the initial stop in place and trailing the 5-min bars if you're concerned about taking a full loss once it's moved in your favor. Counter-trend, I almost always move my stop to b/e after more than 10 ticks, UNLESS the b/e stop level makes no sense. So let's say I put on a counter-trend trade for a pullback to the 5-min 20 EMA, it moves .11 ticks in my favor, but a b/e stop is a tick or two beneath the 1-min 20 EMA. This in fact happened to me on a trade Friday. I'm not moving my stop to b/e in that case IF the key level is still in play and the trade hasn't been invalidated. So if the 20 EMA on the 5-min or a trend/channel line is in play, I hold my position even if it reverses back into the red. If a reversal setup appears, then I'll stop and reverse, but if moving to b/e makes no sense (other than to make me feel "safe"), then I leave everything as is until it makes sense to move the stop.

Ok.
Yes, trailing the stop with the 5 min. bar is great in tests. That gives the best exit strategy so far in terms of PnL. But it also gives the most scratch trades. About 40% in my tests. So it is a trade off. Or rather an art, to know when to use witch type of exit.

As for today, I couldn't bring myself to short at all. Not even the LH setup for a pullback to the 20 EMA setup during 12:30pm ET bar could lure me in. From the time the regular market opened, the pullbacks were pitiful. No one was selling. No near term overhead resistance except levels from the daily chart: 88.89, 89.69, 90.14, 90.45, 90.72, 90.96. Every few ticks lower was an excuse for buyers to step in. When pullbacks are shallow no matter how strong the push in the trend, and when there's not a lot of near term overhead resistance where trapped longs are waiting to get out (those old longs were put out of their misery back in early October), that tells you the easy money will be in the direction of the up trend.

I agree with you. And as I was drawing the 30min market profile chart in the morning, I noted to myself that above 89 there is nothing to hold CL back. And resisted shorting also for most of the day.

Thanks!

 

[clightmarathon]

Quote from IanMacQuaide:

That entry at 9:30 is just Gorgeous. The Russell had a similar setup at 10EST on a 3min chart.

Yes it was a perfect place and I was waiting for another leg in the correction, that is why I did not enter there. Or in other words, It was not a signal for me on the 5 min. I checked now the 3 min. and the PA was the one I was looking for in the 5 min.
Well, next time it comes to me in 5 min. ...
(actually it came later the day, but by that time I did not take the signal.)

 

[clightmarathon]

2 trades today.

#1: +0.02

fortunately some visitors came and so I closed it early.

#2: -0.16

Was still not in the groove today, missed many very good signals in the London session.

 

[clightmarathon]

executions:

 

[Blotto]

Hello clmarathon,

I have a little time this evening so I am going to help you. Please read everything I have to say with an open mind. Please note that I deal in facts - evaluate each of my statements as such - it is your responsibility to determine the veracity of what I am saying, and who to listen to.

I am also going to critique some of the other comments posted here. That is because I think some of it is wrong, and others is dangerous nonsense which may mislead. People may not necessarily agree. I would observe that many posters here who have time to post all day every day may not be fully engaged with the market. Think about it. Up to you who you listen to - your responsibility to decide. I'm not going to try and persuade you beyond setting on what I know from my own experiences and logic to be correct. It might not be what you want to hear, and maybe others will tell you what you want to hear rather than what you need to hear. Be aware of your own motives.

First, I've reviewed your charts and trades. Haphazard. Imprecise. Not good enough. Please do not do any more live trading until you have corrected your strategy. You can forward test in real conditions using your simulation account. This advice is to save you money and unwarranted stress. If you continue live, it may be that you have a masochistic personality or a gambling issue. If so, be honest about this with yourself and either make the choice to do something else or persist in self destructing.

 

[Blotto]

Spanish claims to have made those returns but also claims to have blown up. He also claims to have started trading around 5 years ago if I remember. Making $35k and blowing it up is not unusual in this industry and does not qualify him as an expert.

Arguments about tight stops - the truth is that stop size is dependant on market knowledge and execution skills, not any other factor. Those who require $2 stops in CL don't know any better how to time entries (or are dealing significant size which does not concern anyone here). It is possible to enter with 15 tick stops (or 10 tick stops) and be stopped out very few times if one trades at the correct prices and times.

OracleWizard is neither an Oracle nor a Wizard. There is no such thing as noise. What are you looking at - a market. There is a bid and offer price, and a quantity available at the inside market. There is a record of prior purchases and sales giving price, time, and volume information. The fact that you may choose to view this through a chart does not change the validity of this. Your job as a problem solver is to determine how to use the prior and current market data to give yourself net gains from the daily markets. Therefore all this talk of noise is irrelevant to you. Ignore the circle jerk about how people like to display charts, what stop sizes and "timeframes" others prefer to use themselves, and concentrate on learning what works for yourself.

In an environment which requires precision, you must start with precise applied thought. Thought is everything. Therefore it may be wise to disregard the advice of those who do not deal with precise language, precise concepts, etc. Example in point: trend - this term is talked about but not defined. Each interpretation is different. Traders seem to consider different ranges of market data when defining their trend. Therefore everybody is using the same word to discuss something different. Not helpful to you. Throw away the textbook and reach your own conclusions.

As no label will make you a success, it doesn't matter "what sort of trader" you are.

Your entry price has absolutely nothing to do with your trade. In terms of risk management you place a stop order on each trade in case you are wrong. This is necessary for capital preservation purposes, to avoid being caught in a trade which you fail to exit. Your break even point is irrelevant to what the market will do next. You require a robust strategy to signal your exits. Your fear of loss is not a robust way to exit. Be aware of the faulty reasoning employed by some advocates of break even stops on this thread. In terms of moving stops around - your focus should be on exiting when it is the correct time to exit. If you study and test properly, you will find that it is a sub optimal strategy to place stop losses close to the market, in pullback areas, and around recent highs / lows.

Without a successful system no amount of discipline will make you a success. At best you'll perfectly execute a mediocre or net losing system. Any emotions you feel when at the screens are proportional to your level of confidence in what you are doing. It would be irrational to be confident in something as haphazard as your trading results. This shows that you have a haphazard strategy. Your rationality will cause you stress when trading until this is corrected. Thankfully your net worth plus the limit of what you can borrow is your career stop loss should you go this route. I would not recommend doing so however.

 

[Blotto]

Quote from NoDoji:

From what I can see, you have a strong viable edge and appear to be trading price action which is always a big plus IMHO. Your biggest battles will be psychological. Learn to accept small losers on the road to larger winners. Learn to accept that price of admission to the trade, which is your initial stop loss. That initial stop loss is valid until a reversal signal appears if you're trading in the direction of a well-defined trend. so be patient; but if counter-trend or in a range around a level of indecision, be stingy with the stop and ready to scratch on a lack of follow-through.

This is blatant nonsense and dangerous advice I am sorry to have to tell you.
I have reviewed your charts and can tell from the trades marked that you do not have a consistently accurate trading methodology in place and therefore should not be live trading with the expectation of anything better than mediocre or net negative results. While I am pleased to see that your charts lack the usual clusterings of indicators added on without any thought, you are trading in the wrong places. What could be the agenda of someone who tells an obviously struggling trader that their issues are psychological rather than technical, and then proceeds to offer generalities about trends and discipline?

A requirement for this profession is being able to ferret out what is correct when this isn't necessarily obvious to the untrained mind. Apply that thought to your interactions here.

"A range around a level of indecision in the market". Really? Anyone who uses such imprecise terms is likely to have equally disorganised and imprecise thought, and bring that into their trading.

Unless somebody effectively communicates to you their meaning, they cannot be understood. I am using the common meaning of words as found in the dictionary, and if I were to deviate from this I would explain my specific meaning precisely.

 

[Blotto]

You are apparently trading live. If so, why?

What is your objective in trading?

Why have you chosen to specialise in this particular instrument?

If you would like my input on your trading strategy, please describe it.

Please also describe the reasoning behind each one of the trades you have taken to date (displayed in this thread).

Based on your responses to these questions I can determine how, if at all, you may be helped.

 

[Blotto]

NoDoji,

If you are going to contribute to this discussion perhaps it would be useful to hear what you describe when using the term "indecision".

Thanks in anticipation.

 

[Tonkadad]

Quote from Blotto:



"A range around a level of indecision in the market". Really? Anyone who uses such imprecise terms...

The market is imprecise, the way prices move is imprecise, to use exact precision when describing the market, IMHO, would be removing the subtle mindset that imprecise terms allude too.

Precision is not a word I would associate with the market, certainly not for traders making decisions real time, maybe if you have a fully automated system.

I have been stopped out precisely at the high/low of a move, I have had my target hit, precisely at the high/low of a move, at least as far as my data feed showed.

The above quote makes total sense to me.

You young'ins probably won't know what I am talking about but there was a Gilligan's Island episode that I remember from my youth where the castaways are sitting around a table and their discussing something and every time someone says a statement Gilligan responds that that person has a good point. After he says this about 4 times the Skipper says "that not everybody can be right" and of course Gilligan says "you know what Skipper you have a good point"

I think we need to be more like Gilligan, there are 3 basic possibilities in the market, price will go up, go down or not go at all, we have to accept the fact that those 3 possibilities "have a good point" of happening at anytime.

Blotto, other than the criticizing of other traders posts, I pretty much agree with everything you said.