Crude is screwed, man.

[tfp]

Hello everyone. I'm just waiting for the hindsight fibo extension chart.

There is no math on the planet that predicted the 150+ tick drop in crude today. If you were short before the move and caught it - then congrats and that's all that matters. You are either a brilliant genius or very lucky. If you were long, my condolences. Bullish swing traders who did not have the sense to flatten prior to EIA got annihilated today - may they live to play another day...

API report read the Tea leaves yesterday at 15:30 - if you read it well, you did well...

 

[panganp]

A way to trade EIA (my way) is to know the forecasts and API numbers for crude and products, know how to intepret the numbers on the fly, and if very bearish/bullish and heavy volume just jump onboard with a wide stop - or a tight stop and scalp out. Its very difficult but 100% doable. A thorough statistical analysis of EIA price reactions helps. Being loaded pre-event is tantamount to gambling, although I do know one trader who somehow has an edge in entering pre-event (and does so only once in a while). I only hold trades into EIA when I have a view and a cushion between entry and price.

 

[panganp]

There is no math on the planet that predicted the 150+ tick drop in crude today. If you were short before the move and caught it - then congrats and that's all that matters. You are either a brilliant genius or very lucky. If you were long, my condolences. Bullish swing traders who did not have the sense to flatten prior to EIA got annihilated today - may they live to play another day...

API report read the Tea leaves yesterday at 15:30 - if you read it well, you did well...

Actually given the inventory numbers a 150 tick drop was normal.

 

[hhiusa]

There is no math on the planet that predicted the 150+ tick drop in crude today. If you were short before the move and caught it - then congrats and that's all that matters. You are either a brilliant genius or very lucky. If you were long, my condolences. Bullish swing traders who did not have the sense to flatten prior to EIA got annihilated today - may they live to play another day...

API report read the Tea leaves yesterday at 15:30 - if you read it well, you did well...

What are you talking about? Trump said he was leaving the Paris Accord, and although a moot gesture, it sends the message to private investors to avoid renewable. He is pro-oil.

After news of the accord, the renewables that I was watching like FSLR dropped. Oil also rised.

Super Thursday is coming. The rats are fleeing before the fallout. The fallout being the Comey investigation. This is potentially bad for him and; thus, very bad for oil. Due to globalisation, even localized events in the US can affect international markets.

I trade like this: what is good for Trump is good for oil. What is bad for Trump is bad for oil and non-clean energy.

I think oil dropped in part due to fear of the Super Thursday outcome between May, Comey and the ECB.

 

[panganp]

@hhiusa today was 100% about the #s. Oil could not care less about May the ECB or Comey. This can be "proven". No statistical significant correlation between ECB announcements or the euro and oil, likewise with cable or UK election polls ... impossible to make a proper analysis with Comey driven moves as not enough data, but the correlation between crude and gold lately as well as during Comey days has been close to zero.

30k contracts traded on 1min at 10:30 - record 1min volume for the last 2 years. It was the biggest inventories increase in over two years ... when the market expected a significant draw, and API did not help.

API: cl -4.6, rb +4.1, ho +1.7
EIA: cl +3.3, rb +3.3, ho +4.4

 

[tfp]

What are you talking about? Trump said he was leaving the Paris Accord, and although a moot gesture, it sends the message to private investors to avoid renewable. He is pro-oil.

After news of the accord, the renewables that I was watching like FSLR dropped. Oil also rised.

Super Thursday is coming. The rats are fleeing before the fallout. The fallout being the Comey investigation. This is potentially bad for him and; thus, very bad for oil. Due to globalisation, even localized events in the US can affect international markets.

I trade like this: what is good for Trump is good for oil. What is bad for Trump is bad for oil and non-clean energy.

I think oil dropped in part due to fear of the Super Thursday outcome between May, Comey and the ECB.

LOL - 'pro oil' dropped 150 ticks today, after 50 tick drop from yesterday's API. And yes, agreed it is very much within the realm of a normal reaction to EIA. My only point is if your math had you short since yesterday, you are a rockstar. If not, then hey, your math didn't work out.

I don't have the math to predict the size of the move on EIA days - it's too variable - if you do - you rock! But regardless of the short targets, the 'math' was certainly there that by all means avoid shorts until after today's EIA report

P.S. In full disclosure, I do not trade based on Trumpette whatsoever. If you do and can generate alpha, awesome. I remain but a mere lowly tape reader - I could care less about the news, other than keeping an eye on when the news is likely to be...

 

[panganp]

What are you talking about? Trump said he was leaving the Paris Accord, and although a moot gesture, it sends the message to private investors to avoid renewable. He is pro-oil.

True. Yet IMHO leaving the accord is more about being pro-oil production, halving strategic reserves and drilling in Alaska. Bearish for crude prices. Also the Paris Accord is not only very long term, but also the announcement should have been fully discounted by the markets as it had been known for a long while - no uncertainty there.

 

[hhiusa]

LOL - 'pro oil' dropped 150 ticks today, after 50 tick drop from yesterday's API. And yes, agreed it is very much within the realm of a normal reaction to EIA. My only point is if your math had you short since yesterday, you are a rockstar. If not, then hey, your math didn't work out.

I don't have the math to predict the size of the move on EIA days - it's too variable - if you do - you rock! But regardless of the short targets, the 'math' was certainly there that by all means avoid shorts until after today's EIA report

P.S. In full disclosure, I do not trade based on Trumpette whatsoever. If you do and can generate alpha, awesome. I remain but a mere lowly tape reader - I could care less about the news, other than keeping an eye on when the news is likely to be...

Don't misunderstand me. I care nothing for the news Trump is more than news, he is leader of the most powerful nation on the planet. His words affect the markets. I just sit and wait and take advantage. I don't care about politics, I care about how policy affects markets.

Mostly, I trade only based upon math. Right or wrong, I bought puts based upon Trump ergo oil.

 

[tfp]

Don't misunderstand me. I care nothing for the news Trump is more than news, he is leader of the most powerful nation on the planet. His words affect the markets. I just sit and wait and take advantage. I don't care about politics, I care about how policy affects markets.

Mostly, I trade only based upon math. Right or wrong, I bough puts based upon Trump ergo oil.

" Right or wrong, I bough puts based upon Trump ergo oil." Congrats Man - well done!

 

[tfp]

Disclosure: While we were chatting, long from 4580s - my setup was there. Targets 4610-4620s on a countertrend retrace overnight. Half off at initial ping on 46s. If it breaks below 4585s with authority, trade is over and time to wait for the next one.

We'll just have to wait and see what she does.

To all - a good night!