Crude is screwed, man.

tfp said:
The fibs are definitely drawn unconventionally. No predictions, only probabilities with range expansion. The fibs are drawn as an easy way to approximate volatility range expansion.

Today in CL - choppy Monday, but smalls shorts from session highs are still there.
Crazy spike right at 08:00 CT snapped it and hit its volatility target - not really tradeable, but as usual, the math held up. Softer fade from 5130s held and hit balancing rotation right around 51s, until the Brits figure out where they'll take it next:

2017-05-22_1455%20elite.png
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K, so let us compare Fibbos, over the same time period yesterday. Here's mine...

clficwtfet.JPG


Times listed at bottom of chart are EDT from yesterday. Do they make more or less sense to you? Do you see 50% opportunity there?
 
Overnight said:
K, so let us compare Fibbos, over the same time period yesterday. Here's mine...

View attachment 174050

Times listed at bottom of chart are EDT from yesterday. Do they make more or less sense to you? Do you see 50% opportunity there?
More...

Drawing fibs this way uses them as attempts at S/R levels or Pivots. Maybe they respect a fib line and maybe they don't - I was never able to rely on predictive odds using this method, but perhaps other traders have.

I use fibs as a quick volatility range expansion calculator based on specific setups that then have specific targets - in advance, before they reach their targets.

In the end, regardless of how you draw them, if you have a repeatable edge, and your tools allow you to identify entries and targets with 70-80% odds, you have something worth trading.
 
Today served up another example - 2 trades.
Trade #1 brewed from London lows and hit both likely as well as aggressive targets.
Trade #2 hit its likely target and would have required holding through API inventory report to hit its aggressive target (no thanks, not necessary):

2017-05-23_2044%20elite.png


ES also obliged, one trade in each direction. The likely vs. aggressive targets on ES are more muted since it is less volatile than CL:

2017-05-23_2052%20elite.png
 
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Is it now "So much for OPEC, later alligator", or is this sell-off some sort of knee-jerk whining about them not deepening the cuts?
 
With the emergence of North America as a huge energy player, OPEC is losing their power overtime. They don't control prices like they did in the past. I think North American production levels now control the price of oil.
 
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