Crude is screwed, man.

They may be trying to goose this with 'press releases', but the tape reveals today was a great day for shorts - run 'em up, spit 'em out, and reverse the thrusters. We frequently find that by the time something is published, someone or something is loading up on the other side - we won't name names. Ignore the news and haze outside the cockpit window - IFR in effect at all times.

2 trades looked viable today - long during london lunchtime with 1 target on the way up, followed by gorgeous short during NY pit session with 3 targets fulfilled on the way down, capped off by a nice Weekly API report just for good measure:

2017-05-16_2137%20elite.png
 
franT said:
Your fibo charts look familiar, but your 100% anchor point is off more often than not. Is this on purpose, or ignorance?. Your 0% point is usually right, but that is the easy one.
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LOL - there is no right or wrong way to draw fibs, however, they are an amazing tool. There is no 100% anchor point that is off (or on for that matter). You are correct - the fibs are not drawn like others may draw them. The fibs are not ignorant - they are very deliberate and intentional. The fibs are drawn as nature's best, easy, volatility range expansion tool.
 
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Overnight said:
Indeed. Looking back over your charts, why are you drawing fibbo cycles with a range of 15-30 tics. In CL? No wonder you have these huge 100% multiples of expansion.
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Another LOL - if there are setups that give 15-30 ticks on CL with 80% probabilities and great risk:return profile, then ???

Many days offer 30-50 tick setups. Some more, some less. This is not an exercise in holding as long as possible, this is a 'Moneyball' strategy in consistently getting to first base, with some nice occasional home runs, even grand slams.

A trader can hold crude in multiday swing trades, exposing themselves to time in the market and overnight risk, or a trader can consistently take 30-50-70-sometimes-100+ ticks each day. One is not necessarily better than the other - it's up to individual preference and style. If you go home green, that's all that matters.

There is more than one way to use fibs, or to make a market for that matter ;)
 
3 trades on a tricky EIA crude news report. London session had a nice long 30-60 ticks.
Typically stay flat prior to EIA news. Well placed entry stops or quick fingers might have caught 30-50 tick elevator up. Trade #3 after retail stops were cleared offered 20-30 ticks back down to balancing zone ~ 49s.

EIA days can be difficult to place good entries.

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tfp said:
LOL - there is no right or wrong way to draw fibs, however, they are an amazing tool. There is no 100% anchor point that is off (or on for that matter). You are correct - the fibs are not drawn like others may draw them. The fibs are not ignorant - they are very deliberate and intentional. The fibs are drawn as nature's best, easy, volatility range expansion tool.
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I know there is at least one right way to draw them. But carry on with ... your bliss.
 
franT said:
I know there is at least one right way to draw them. But carry on with ... your bliss.
More...
%%
Exactly; even a 50% fibo ,they front run it , lead it, lag it or ignore it .LOL I told one trader =put enough lines[moving averages] on your chart you may hit some thing !! LOL. Theyre NOT predictions even when drawn correctly; carry on.
 
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The fibs are definitely drawn unconventionally. No predictions, only probabilities with range expansion. The fibs are drawn as an easy way to approximate volatility range expansion.

Today in CL - choppy Monday, but smalls shorts from session highs are still there.
Crazy spike right at 08:00 CT snapped it and hit its volatility target - not really tradeable, but as usual, the math held up. Softer fade from 5130s held and hit balancing rotation right around 51s, until the Brits figure out where they'll take it next:

2017-05-22_1455%20elite.png


ES was more cooperative in a nice session bull run:

2017-05-22_1509%20elite.png
 
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