Crude is screwed, man.

[xandman]

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...n-Sachs-Expects-Another-Oil-Glut-In-2018.html

 

[xandman]

This a futures thread, but I thought we would go on a good tangent with a big U.S. producer's stock.

 

[Overnight]

This a futures thread, but I thought we would go on a good tangent with a big U.S. producer's stock.
...

Nah Mr. DogBDSM, (sorry, cannot resist that lol) the stock price of a single major producer should not have an effect on the actual oil flows and supply/demand pricing in the short-to-medium term. The stock price of ExxonMobil should be affected by way more fundamental shit than just how much they are currently pulling out of the ground at the moment. Operational overheads, outlying debts, corporate bonds...I cannot even fathom all the stuff that goes on to evaluate a company's P/E and stock value.

The chart you posted looks like a plain ol' TA chart. And while that may work for a stock, it does not work for a futures folk like myself, because futures expire but shares do not. :-(

 

[xandman]

Nah Mr. DogBDSM, (sorry, cannot resist that lol) the stock price of a single major producer should not have an effect on the actual oil flows and supply/demand pricing in the short-to-medium term. The stock price of ExxonMobil should be affected by way more fundamental shit than just how much they are currently pulling out of the ground at the moment. Operational overheads, outlying debts, corporate bonds...I cannot even fathom all the stuff that goes on to evaluate a company's P/E and stock value.

The chart you posted looks like a plain ol' TA chart. And while that may work for a stock, it does not work for a futures folk like myself, because futures expire but shares do not. :-(

Interesting view point. XOM is the biggest and smartest capital allocator in US energy.

If you want to learn company evaluation. XOM is a textbook classic. If there was one stock to read about to learn that stuff, this would be it.

It won't tell you how many rigs will go up next month. But looking at their radical change in spending plans might give a hint of how much US production is ramping up domestically.

 

[bone]

The chart you posted looks like a plain ol' TA chart. And while that may work for a stock, it does not work for a futures folk like myself, because futures expire but shares do not. :-(

That's not correct. Most futures contracts, including Crude Oil, can be charted using continuous, consolidated data. Similarly, you can correct for stock share splits when charting individual equity names on a continuous basis.

 

[viruscore1]

Here is what I don't understand.

Saudi Arabia ----> Shit... we are running out of money because oil is so cheap these days. Let's sell a piece of our company in an IPO and get suckers to give us lots of money for it.

IPO Sucker -----> Lets buy a piece of this Oil Company that needs to raise money since the product they sell isn't doing so well.

Its almost like Kodak wanting to do an IPO when their film business was failing. What am I missing here? Why does anyone want to buy a piece of this company?

Listen.. the Saudi's aren't stupid. They let in foreign workers to work for cheap wages to build their infrastructure, but they sure as hell don't let them stay and apply for permanent residency (unlike other countries). They sure as hell also aren't taking in any refugees that also happen to follow the same religion. So given this, why on earth sell a piece of a business that is doing well? Clearly they aren't.... since it isn't doing well. They are selling a piece of a business that is going down the drain. So why is anyone going to be eager to buy?

KSA will run out of oil in about 60 years. They need to invent an engine that runs on sand.

 

[Gotcha]

KSA will run out of oil in about 60 years. They need to invent an engine that runs on sand.

Honestly, I highly doubt in 60 years we will care. I really do think renewable energy will trump everything else. Imagine huge installations in the desert soaking up the sun making liquid fuel. By then cars will all be electric, and this liquid fuel will only be necessary for things like airplanes and ships perhaps. If anything needs fuel, it will be manufactured and not extracted.

60 years is so far out, and at the pace we are going, I really doubt we will need to be extracting oil out of the ground, even for uses other than energy, like for the polymer chains for plastics and such, which will be replaced by assembling the molecules needed by machines. There really is so much technology out there right now that is moving at such a blistering pace that life will be so different.

 

[xandman]

60 years

It's a tough call. But consider this, the world has been gaga over oil for over 100 years. And, most of its uses were found only in the latter half.

It hasn't even been recognized yet as a solution for erectile dysfunction and marital abuse.

 

[viruscore1]

I was stationed in KSA during the 90's and they told me they had approximately 80 years of oil left at current consumption. They drilled further down for water. Gas was .15 cents a liter ...

 

[Gotcha]

It's a tough call. But consider this, the world has been gaga over oil for over 100 years. And, most of its uses were found only in the latter half.

It hasn't even been recognized yet as a solution for erectile dysfunction and marital abuse.

LOL... I bet in 60 years that will be solved as well. The VR sex will be so amazing, you won't need a wife... and with no wife constantly nagging... you won't have the built up rage!

Its just that things are moving so fast now, and 60 years being so far out, I believe just about anything.