Crude is screwed, man.

Buy1Sell2 said:
Sell April and buy May
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I don't understand this concept. So you sold your April long for a 2tic loss, but got right back into a May long, which could fall even further. If you sold your April long for a 50 tick loss, would you have then bought into a May long with that 50 tick loss? How is this a "roll"? In an instrument where forward months mirror the spot month in price action, it doesn't mitigate anything in my experience, because most months follow each other. What one does in price action, the other does.

I am not wording this correctly perhaps, but in my mind, selling a long in one month and then buying a long in another month is not a roll. You are just taking a profit or loss in one month by going flat, and then getting right back into the same position in another month. That's just standard buying and selling as if the months were the same, because the different months' movements mirror each other.
 
Overnight said:
I don't understand this concept. So you sold your April long for a 2tic loss, but got right back into a May long, which could fall even further. If you sold your April long for a 50 tick loss, would you have then bought into a May long with that 50 tick loss? How is this a "roll"? In an instrument where forward months mirror the spot month in price action, it doesn't mitigate anything in my experience, because most months follow each other. What one does in price action, the other does.

I am not wording this correctly perhaps, but in my mind, selling a long in one month and then buying a long in another month is not a roll. You are just taking a profit or loss in one month by going flat, and then getting right back into the same position in another month. That's just standard buying and selling as if the months were the same, because the different months' movements mirror each other.
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In order for me to continue trading Crude futures, I have to trade May. So, yes I sell and go flat in April and then I buy May. I just call it rolling into May. In actuality, the April trade is a separate trade.
 
There's been some pullback to 47.97 after hitting 48.30 high--just 5 ticks shy of my profit taking point. I am looking for another push starting shortly to get us where we need to be.
 
bone said:
I'll repeat myself again - I think that retail and most spec traders would be best served to confine their studies to the technical analysis of price data - precisely because of the information and understanding gap I have described in my recent posts.
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Thanks for all the info. I do not in any way claim to know all the fundamental factors. But I still have to wonder, given all this info that you are gathering, how is it helping your trading? I assume fundamental trading is longer term (weeks and months), but there must still be an element of risk, and wins and losses. How are your wins and losses if you don't mind me asking? Is it any better than what a technical analyst would do? The reason why I ask all this is because it seems like the point you are making is that with enough fundamental knowledge, you have the upper hand and can predict market direction with a greater amount of certainty. So I'm curious to know what this level of certainty is, unless I'm mistaken by what all this fundamental analysis is helping you do.
 
Maverick74 said:
Bone, here is the issue. Energy unlike scalping ES, requires a lot of work. You and I both know this. It's why I do most of my trading in this sector because there are some real edges left. But the fact of the matter is, retail traders don't have a chance here and gotcha is proving that point. He has no idea what you are talking about. And he won't make the effort to learn. I really don't think most retail guys should be in this space. It's very complicated as you pointed out and simply buying oil because of some support level is about the stupidest thing I ever heard. Yet that is how these guys trade. It's a free world of course and they are entitled to try. The fact that you have to take the time and write out what you have when they simply could have googled it just shows you what you have to work with here. All they really need to go is go to cme.com and click on energy and they will see the merc lists over 100 different energy products of which 99% of the guys here probably have no idea what they are. And that is the is real problem. They don't know. Until these guys make the first few steps on their own and show an ounce of intellectual curiosity, you can't help them.
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Since you are on this fundamental bandwagon, may I ask for your trade stats in reference to trading oil? I heard from a very good source here at ET that you have blown out your account multiple times. I have no idea what time frame this was in, nor what you were trading, but the fact still remains, and I believe it, that you have gone through tough times. If fundamental knowledge/analysis is the holy grail, why the tough times?
 
I am not very surprised at the fact that CL dropped about 7 bux since March 8th. The drop came hard and faster than I expected. (Not surprised so much considering all the long position buildups since holiday 2016, along with the inventory builds.) But the OPEC meeting in May is going to be a turning point. I feel it in my bones. If they do not extend cuts, crude is even more screwed than it is now.

Yet there must be a bounce-point. It happened the last day or two @~47.71, pushed through another 70 ticks or so down to ~47.0x. And now it seems to be recovering. This is a whole new world in CL now. New POTUS, OPEC failing, US producers pumping gobs of crude goop into their tanks more efficiently than ever before. But now...summer refinery demand comes into play after spring maintenance is finished! Hmm!

Fascinating.
 
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