Crude is screwed, man.

I read this elsewhere (granted it is from 2014):

"Note that 60/40 treatment has been attacked for a few years now. Would not be shocking to see it scrapped in an eventual tax deal, somewhere down the line. Unlike carried interest, which has a solid theoretical basis, the 60-40 basis is somewhat arbitrary. The Green Book is how administrations float their wish list for taxes, and 60/40 has been a prior Green Book victim."

The 60/40 is going to go away sooner or later. It was a scheme created in the 1980's by the late Stan Rostenkowski from Illinois to support the CBOT and CME. The idea was that the exchanges were a lot less liquid then and the tax provided and incentive for traders to take the additional risk of putting money into commodity accounts (FCMs) which were not insured vs security accounts that were. We have no such liquidity issues these days and the tax is unwarranted. It will go away but honestly there is not much meat on that bone.
 
This is NOT going to be a fun two-year cycle in the crude markets.

My spidey-sense is tingling that volatility is going to slowly grow and grow as OPEC and the US battle for regional market dominance, along with this monster on the horizon, looming, hovering. Peering at us in the past, from the future.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenr...at-you-should-know-about-aramco/#323db9db535f
Sorry Late to this Thread but would comment that to me who trades the CL consistently with profit -- I pay no attention to fundamentals or news. As you all know, Crude is a huge world-wide market and I am only interested in how to profit trading it on Scalping as well as Swing trades -- so no long term crystal ball looking to determine where oil is going and why. Perhaps, you doubt that a trader can consistently make money trading CL then let me explain with a private message or private chat. ( The reason for the PM or Private is that it is impossible to now be clear enough to make sense without numerous posts of charts etc. that would take me way to long and detract fom my making money trading.)
 

  1. Liz Ann Sonders‏Verified account@LizAnnSonders 12h12 hours ago



When trades get crowded... @SoberLook

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...I pay no attention to fundamentals or news...
Since the 70%+ drop from 2014, then you do this at your own peril.

...Perhaps, you doubt that a trader can consistently make money trading CL...

I do not doubt that a trader can consistently make money trading CL. You have me confused with someone else. If anything, I think it can be one of the most consistently profitable instruments. We don't need to have a "private session" of any sort for you to try to convince me that of which I already realize.

...that would take me way to long and detract from my making money trading.

And we don't want that. Happy hunting.
 
Someone should bookmark these projections for future reference:

http://business.financialpost.com/n...-the-year-as-bears-grab-control-of-the-market

It would be interesting to see how they pan out.


"...said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at forex.com.

“Indeed, despite today’s sharp sell-off, I remain bullish on oil and still expect to see US$60-US$70 a barrel by the year end.”"


Who the hell is this Fawad dude? His first article from a FOREX website was less than 2 months ago, and he is now portending crude prices 9 months into the future? A FOREX guy? ROFL. Must be a graduate of ITT Tech.
 
"...said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at forex.com.

“Indeed, despite today’s sharp sell-off, I remain bullish on oil and still expect to see US$60-US$70 a barrel by the year end.”"


Who the hell is this Fawad dude? His first article from a FOREX website was less than 2 months ago, and he is now portending crude prices 9 months into the future? A FOREX guy? ROFL. Must be a graduate of ITT Tech.
True. I have no idea who he is, and I didn't even bother to look where he hailed from (forex). I just have a general disdain for people who offer specific price projections months in advance, regardless of their credentials. Given the choice, I'd rather have my palms read. At least then I'll be told that I'm going on an exotic trip and that there's a financial windfall waiting for me just around the corner.
 
(In a deadpan monotone voice...) Frederick Foresight you are soon going on an exotic trip and there's a financial windfall waiting for you just around a corner there.

The tea leaves have spoken.
 
Most markets give opportunities during 23 hours to make or lose money, and some simply don't trade when volatility happens, I am one of them where under 60 minute timeframe I cease trading. Risk too great for sensible profit targets.
 
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