The part about $500 dollar in 50 years is incredibly suspicious to me. First, assume that in 50 years, this $500 per barrel isn't just because of inflation, but more like $500 in today's terms. Next, assume that given how quickly the world moves, 50 years of progress going forward will be more like the past 200 years. Based on this, I don't think anyone can really say where oil will be.
But if I had to guess, I would guess it can only go down. The amount of new technology and renewable energy out there is simply mind boggling. It won't be too long until we can not only store electricity cheaply, but also turn it into liquid energy that can be used in the same way that oil is now. Imagine huge solar plants in the desert soaking up the sun and churning out liquid fuel.
Biochemistry will replace all the other uses we have for oil in terms of its chemical properties. We are already synthesizing many polymers that aren't oil based. So many plastics are biodegradable and hence made from sources other than oil.
Saying that oil will go to $500 in 50 years because all the easy to get to oil will be gone is like Kodak suggesting they should buy up all the available silver because they will need it for photography. Good idea at the time, but a new technology totally stole their thunder. The digital photography era completely changed the direction for Kodak.
Oil isn't so special in my opinion, and really not all that competitive for energy storage and distribution. If it should ever reach $100 in the very near future, you can bet that the electric car industry will grow even faster because people will have even more incentive to switch. I know that the airline industry is a big user of oil, as is shipping, but like I say, given a 50 year time line, I have no doubt that liquid fuel from renewable resources will be made all over the world.
Look at making bitcoins. Takes lots of electricity, and produces lots of heat as waste, so the economics of mining bitcoins relies on cheap electricity and cooling.. so Iceland I believe has the upper hand in this. Likewise, take areas with huge potential for renewable energy, and they can set up factories to produce renewable fuel.
Even if you don't believe any of this, suggesting that $500 oil will happen in 50 years would mean that the earth is suffering from a lack of cheap energy infrastructure, and I just don't believe this will happen.
But if I had to guess, I would guess it can only go down. The amount of new technology and renewable energy out there is simply mind boggling. It won't be too long until we can not only store electricity cheaply, but also turn it into liquid energy that can be used in the same way that oil is now. Imagine huge solar plants in the desert soaking up the sun and churning out liquid fuel.
Biochemistry will replace all the other uses we have for oil in terms of its chemical properties. We are already synthesizing many polymers that aren't oil based. So many plastics are biodegradable and hence made from sources other than oil.
Saying that oil will go to $500 in 50 years because all the easy to get to oil will be gone is like Kodak suggesting they should buy up all the available silver because they will need it for photography. Good idea at the time, but a new technology totally stole their thunder. The digital photography era completely changed the direction for Kodak.
Oil isn't so special in my opinion, and really not all that competitive for energy storage and distribution. If it should ever reach $100 in the very near future, you can bet that the electric car industry will grow even faster because people will have even more incentive to switch. I know that the airline industry is a big user of oil, as is shipping, but like I say, given a 50 year time line, I have no doubt that liquid fuel from renewable resources will be made all over the world.
Look at making bitcoins. Takes lots of electricity, and produces lots of heat as waste, so the economics of mining bitcoins relies on cheap electricity and cooling.. so Iceland I believe has the upper hand in this. Likewise, take areas with huge potential for renewable energy, and they can set up factories to produce renewable fuel.
Even if you don't believe any of this, suggesting that $500 oil will happen in 50 years would mean that the earth is suffering from a lack of cheap energy infrastructure, and I just don't believe this will happen.