Crude is screwed, man.

[kmiklas]

Shale is killing everyone.

 

[Maverick74]

So you agree then that neither absolute levels nor the shape necessarily indicate less supply of oil in the future. On average higher forward levels indicate that higher future oil prices are expected and ALREADY priced in, and that in turn on average will rather cause an increase in exploration and higher oil supplies as a result not less.

The shape of the curve DOES depict accurately the storage balance over time. You seriously are not debating this are you?

 

[Maverick74]

... Which has zero predictive value, contrary to what you claimed.

Forward pricing in energy futures follows Woking's (1934) theory of cost of storage. In other words, the forward price of oil represents the capital cost and the cost of storage for storing oil from time t to T.

 

[Maverick74]

With all due respect to your otherwise useful comments in other threads but it seems you are highly confused here not me.

And it's a pretty cheap shot when you are proven incorrect on most sub topics and then come out and make a wild claim that someone confuses terms "x and y". It already appears now that you know very little about the subject matter. Why not talking about stuff that you are absolutely sure of?

I did my Masters Thesis in this topic. Did you?

 

[Maverick74]

500 dollar oil prices are not disputed? You mean the outlandish claim relegated to being nothing but wishful thinking is not disputed. That i can agree on.

So now you say we will use very little of that oil (low demand) yet it will be up 500? What will we do with it if we don't use it? Hang it on our walls as decoration?

Are you serious? Going forward I suspect on dependence on fossil fuels will diminish with time and the higher oil goes, the cheaper the substitution effect. ,

 

[Maverick74]

Incorrect, anyone can read the annual accounting statements of all the large producers and can verify that their prop trading divisions contributed a miniscule percentage to the bottom line. It's in the comments section.

Dude, for fucks sake. I'm not talking about Shell. The big 4 are in the business of optimizing assets. I'm talking about the trading houses! You recognize those names right? Glencore, trafigura, Vitol, Gunvor? They are the aggressive speculators, not Exxon. The 4 firms I just named are blowing the back door out. And you claim to be in the industry and yet you do not know that?

 

[i960]

Incorrect, anyone can read the annual accounting statements of all the large producers and can verify that their prop trading divisions contributed a miniscule percentage to the bottom line. It's in the comments section.

He said physical traders not physical producers. Yes sometimes there's overlap but the intent was clearly on the large physical PLAYERS aka Vitol, Glencore, etc.

 

[Maverick74]

Vitol is a trading house not a producer. And if you bothered to read even the first paragraph then you would have found the reason for their profits, and, hint, it's NOT the non existing insider information.

Here it is :
"Vitol Group BV earned $1.6 billion last year, the most since 2011, as the world’s largest independent oil trader profited from price swings in the energy market, according to a person familiar with the matter."

I'm talking about the trading houses! LOL. For God's sake. These firms are aggressive traders AND they hold physical assets. The assets you "claim" are trivial information. LOL.

 

[Maverick74]

Yes the latter names are informed and yes they make a lot of money, but it comes from trading turnover and large price swings in oil. And you are sneakily shifting topics. First you made sweeping statements that the forward curve has predictive value for short term trading which is absolute nonsense. Then you claimed the prop groups of producers have insider information (also incorrect other than information about their own projects and production) and make a boatload of money which is also incorrect and can be easily gleaned from the annual audit reports and accounting documents.

Of course it has predictive value. What the f*ck do you think an energy analyst does for a living? LOL. I can't wait to hear this answer.

 

[Maverick74]

... Then why did you enter this thread and show how little you actually know about this subject matter? Pretty much anything you claimed is factually incorrect.

To dispute every factually incorrect thing you posted which was everything. Christ man, you are making me work hard here fact checking your shit.