Crude is screwed, man.

[bone]

If fundamentals were more or less "instantaneously" reflected in price, then there would not be trends of any duration; there would just be prices jumping from one end point to another in immediate reflection of such fundamentals.

The use of the term 'instantaneous' was a double entendre of your own origin a few posts ago - I would never have introduced the term into this discussion.

Commodity Commercials will be the first market participants to adjust price valuations according to fundamental change into the markets, IMO that is a certainty.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

There are other factors beside fundamentals in price.

Here we are in agreement.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Commodity Commercials will be the first market participants to adjust price valuations according to fundamental change into the markets, IMO that is a certainty.

Even so, that does not preclude fundamentals from being fully reflected in prices over a period of time.

My only point was that price at any given moment does not necessarily discount and fully reflect all of the relevant fundamentals. If anything, the relationship is fairly more tenuous, as suggested by Soros and his reflexivity theory.

 

[Overnight]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...aders-are-looking-at-the-wrong-inventory-data

This is an excellent article. You guys might want to read it. Pretty much is on par with my thesis.

Thank you for the article. But we've seen this shit many times before. Anyone remember last year's "lower-than-expected" demand for gasoline?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/03/anot...asoline-demand-disappointed-says-analyst.html

There has to be a way to find a decent edge in CL. If it cannot be found in Crude, which is highly liquid and somewhat "predictable", where else can it be found? There are SOOOO many factors affecting the price of CL, petroleum distillates notwithstanding. How do we find our edge? It has to be out there dammit!

 

[Frederick Foresight]

There has to be a way to find a decent edge in CL. If it cannot be found in Crude, which is highly liquid and somewhat "predictable", where else can it be found? There are SOOOO many factors affecting the price of CL, petroleum distillates notwithstanding. How do we find our edge? It has to be out there dammit!

 

[bone]

Thank you for the article. But we've seen this shit many times before. Anyone remember last year's "lower-than-expected" demand for gasoline?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/03/anot...asoline-demand-disappointed-says-analyst.html

Yeah, and if you knew how to chart the Gasoline Crack Spread, you would have seen that what this August 03, 2016 article stated afterwards was clearly illustrated in the chart for TWO MONTHS PRIOR. It was a very good sell signal. From the beginning of June to the end of July in 2016, they sold off the Gas Crack Spread. HARD.

Conversely, the Gasoline Crack Spread has rallied very hard the past three weeks. Gasoline has been outperforming CL bigly.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

There has to be a way to find a decent edge in CL. If it cannot be found in Crude, which is highly liquid and somewhat "predictable", where else can it be found? There are SOOOO many factors affecting the price of CL, petroleum distillates notwithstanding. How do we find our edge? It has to be out there !

I believe the edge in every market is management of risk. When you are wrong, lose a little and when right, reap full benefit.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Update on my current trade in May CL----I am long from 49.06 with current pricing at 50.97

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Gasoline has been outperforming CL bigly.

The correct spelling is "Big League"

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Traders, in my view, spend a lot of time on analyzing markets and their fundamentals and I just don't think that those are important at all. Focus on context and price. It can all be seen on a chart.--Ishmael