Crude is screwed, man.

Option vol is at decade lows. Actual stat vol is almost non existent. But spreads are moving! Man are they moving.
Oh yeah, we've been killing with the CL Flys and Condors. Lots of quality entry signals - and guys aren't waiting too long with them either. I have one client who bought a CL Condor a few weeks ago, hit his profit target, and sold a CL Fly the next day - slightly different curve area. Bam bam.
 
Somebody please tell me when crude will break from this dreaded narrow range ...it is almost 2 months now ...I am loosing my patience
 
Option vol is at decade lows. Actual stat vol is almost non existent. But spreads are moving! Man are they moving.

On Feb 22, this graph was almost straight. I thought my spreadsheet was broke. It would be interesting to see that happen again, soon.

The problem is: I have no clue how this curve flaps around. There is minimal front month directionality attributed to it.

upload_2017-3-1_21-37-28.png
 
On Feb 22, this graph was almost straight. I thought my spreadsheet was broke. It would be interesting to see that happen again, soon.

The problem is: I have no clue how this curve flaps around. There is minimal front month directionality attributed to it.

View attachment 171264

Moment of clairvoyance on your part IMO. BTW, the balance of 2018 rocks so put that in there pronto. Hell, there's some 2019 expiries we actively trade.
 
On Feb 22, this graph was almost straight. I thought my spreadsheet was broke. It would be interesting to see that happen again, soon.

The problem is: I have no clue how this curve flaps around. There is minimal front month directionality attributed to it.

View attachment 171264

Brent is tightening fast and WTI not far behind. The Dec17/18 strip is already in backwardation.
 
On Feb 22, this graph was almost straight. I thought my spreadsheet was broke. It would be interesting to see that happen again, soon.

The problem is: I have no clue how this curve flaps around. There is minimal front month directionality attributed to it.

View attachment 171264
if you do a 3d chart model of all the forwards you will know exactly how it " flaps around . It can be done in excel fwiw
 
if you do a 3d chart model of all the forwards you will know exactly how it " flaps around . It can be done in excel fwiw

@PistolPete

3d? Please enlighten me. My understanding is very elementary.

I do understand comparing tenors, but I lack creativity in designing the spreadsheet. Can you recommend something easy to implement via RTD?
 
you may want to check out the movie "A Crude Awakening" it's very informative.
like anything there will invariably be opinions regarding the movie's content however, keeping an open mind I thought it was worth watching.
 
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