Crude at $65 will signal market callapse

[stocon]

Anyone else want to pipe in, obviously our domestic situation is not being effected anywhere close to the 70's. If Saudi get's shut dn than all would agree it's back to the 70's?? Can SA take care of itself now that Iraq is in a state of nature??? I think the US is in for the long haul Got to be a drain on the stocks one way or another. Sucker rally??


Caveat:War is good for short term Biz and Interest rates will remain as low as possible

 

[jficquette]

Quote from TGregg:

There's a bearish sign if ever I saw one.

I know, I give up )

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from jficquette:

Oil bubble will pop sooner or later. That money will dive into the stock market and force it up. When the market starts going up they will began to sell bonds and hop into the stock market so as not to miss the move. Then the shorts are going have to cover.

I have been waiting for 2 years for this market to crater and I have to consider now that it must want to go up rather then down.

John

=======

Have used less gas this year than ever before and ;
loved the idea of driving slower on cruise control.

At the end of day closed out long puts[a bearish position];
scaled in bullish again.

Just doesnt pay to be a fundamentalist analyst;
it maybe fun but not accurate to pretend people will keep using more oil at higher prices.

 

[dgabriel]

Quote from jficquette:

Oil bubble will pop sooner or later. That money will dive into the stock market and force it up. When the market starts going up they will began to sell bonds and hop into the stock market so as not to miss the move. Then the shorts are going have to cover.

I have been waiting for 2 years for this market to crater and I have to consider now that it must want to go up rather then down.

John

Oil bubble? People are justing hoarding it? Demand isn't driving the market?

I would say that a bubble in oil is nigh impossible.

Oil futures settle with delivery. Traders can only have a limited impact on the longer term direction of the market.

 

[Lights]

i disagree. crude going to $65 signals global economic strength. this is a demand situation.

Quote from chlawfirm:

Do the math. Core inflation will go through the roof. Fed will be forced to raise interest rates by 400. Market will capiulate. Dont say u werent warned.

My humble opinion only. I have now shorted everything.

 

[Lights]

i would gladly let my commission go up to a penny per share if stocks moved 3% a day everyday.

Quote from Lights:

i disagree. crude going to $65 signals global economic strength. this is a demand situation.

 

[uptik2000]

$65 oil is still "cheap".

 

[Drock409]

im still waiting for Nickle Increments.....as long as market moves...let oil rip.....get some volatility back in this game

 

[Ticketwatcher]

I am bearish. It is not expensive oil that makes me bearish. It is cheap money. Junk bonds are trading without pricing in a reasonable amount of risk. I cannot help but think the bubble may not be housing but the bond market. Keeping rates low is as easy as it was to keep the Nasdaq above 3000, all you have to do is just buy baby buy. And it must be said that there was enough buying to get the index over 5000. There was enough buying recently to take the ten year below 4 to 3.90 in what I would say was the bond market's demonstration of "irrational exuberance". The explanation is that foreigners are lining up to take on our escalating debt. I think 50 dollar oil is more sustainable than present treasury rates. So be it, I am just a humble daytrader who if ever gets caught with an overnight, can assure you will be a short one.

 

[spect8or]

Quote from jficquette:



I have been waiting for 2 years for this market to crater and I have to consider now that it must want to go up rather then down.

Well, think it through carefully. You don't wanna rush these things...