Crowd sentiment

[illiquid]

Have you ever heard the saying to the effect that crowds are generally right during the middle of a move but wrong at the turns? Is this not a complete, whatchamacalit, tautology? Akin to "it works, until it doesn't"?

 

[Fangdog]

Quote from illiquid:

Have you ever heard the saying to the effect that crowds are generally right during the middle of a move but wrong at the turns? Is this not a complete, whatchamacalit, tautology? Akin to "it works, until it doesn't"?

I like crowd sentiment described this way; 80% are wrong 80% of the time and 20% are right 80% of the time. 80% will buy within 20% of the top and 80% will sell within 20% of the bottom. I guess it explains why only 20% buy their whiskey with cash.

 

[wiesman02]

Quote from Fangdog:

I like crowd sentiment described this way; 80% are wrong 80% of the time and 20% are right 80% of the time. 80% will buy within 20% of the top and 80% will sell within 20% of the bottom. I guess it explains why only 20% buy their whiskey with cash.

Ha, I agree 100%. I've always used the saying "80% of the population are idiots". Instead, I should switch that around to 80% of people act like idiots 80% of the time. lol. Good one.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from illiquid:

Have you ever heard the saying to the effect that crowds are generally right during the middle of a move but wrong at the turns? Is this not a complete, whatchamacalit, tautology? Akin to "it works, until it doesn't"?

Unfortunately stock markets works with crowd psychology, which is very negative at the moment, which translates into a Bullish Bias for the markets.