Critique my strategy (MA Breakout)

I currently am testing 7 EA's (I just canceled two of them). I am getting ready to take one of them live. It is in the EA library here. It is named :

SVOS EUR/JPY D1 Modified

ES
 
Not always...sometimes I use Oanda's historical page and copy and paste into a spreadsheet..

all i need is to discover the CHANGE in performance from input to input...so I can use a smaller sample. If I need to stress test then i can get some 10 year ranges to stress MAE and MFE against...

backtesting is not really accurate...you need to forward test on a 50 buck account an EA that you are reasonably comfortable with and understand. The most you can lose is 50 bucks..

Demo trading is great to learn the platform and all its nuances ....also backtesting is great for coders to test their code with...

I am not a manual trader...but I am using an Oanda live account to test a manual system with...I got MT4 open at the same time and I am developing some code while I trade and observe manually... (I am a copy and paste coder..I have no idea what the lines of code mean...hehe)

ES

Quote from alexboyd:

So in your case ES, testing an EA that trades only once or twice a day would be very difficult, because it would take a long time to get a body of results?

Personally, I forward test everything that shows a reasonably good backtest... but in these situations it can be pretty hard with a low trade volume.

I assume you use MT4 for this sort of thing? Which broker do you use, may I ask?
More...
 
AB,

It is difficult to find an EA that can last through ten years of profitability.

Its like trying to fit a frame around a picture...You cannot get a loose enough EA to conform to those ranges it will see...

ElectricCannotCanAnEASavant
 
I'm in the same boat with the coding. I learn bits and pieces picked up from others' EAs, and I use that Expert Advisor Builder tool online, but I'm kind of clueless about mql4 other than that :(

It's interesting, I tried that SVOS EURJPY D1 EA for a while, using the copy from tradingsystemforex.com, and after a week of testing it had made only one trade (a loss) - I gave up on it. I'll slap it on a chart again and give it another chance.

By the way, which MT4 broker do you use? I'm having a hard time trusting all of the marketing that's out there to make an informed decision.

Thanks for your replies!
 
AB,

You really have excellent probing questions and I am afraid I am not helping you much.

Please i do not mean to be evasive but here is the truth:

THEY ARE ALL THIEVES.

es


Quote from alexboyd:

I'm in the same boat with the coding. I learn bits and pieces picked up from others' EAs, and I use that Expert Advisor Builder tool online, but I'm kind of clueless about mql4 other than that :(

It's interesting, I tried that SVOS EURJPY D1 EA for a while, using the copy from tradingsystemforex.com, and after a week of testing it had made only one trade (a loss) - I gave up on it. I'll slap it on a chart again and give it another chance.

By the way, which MT4 broker do you use? I'm having a hard time trusting all of the marketing that's out there to make an informed decision.

Thanks for your replies!
More...
 
AB,

You need to run several EA's so you don't get bored...sometimes trading less is more profitable...but you can have several balls in the air with your various EA's.

ES

P.S. Some EA's need to be restarted periodically (close your MT4 and reopen it)

Quote from alexboyd:

I'm in the same boat with the coding. I learn bits and pieces picked up from others' EAs, and I use that Expert Advisor Builder tool online, but I'm kind of clueless about mql4 other than that :(

It's interesting, I tried that SVOS EURJPY D1 EA for a while, using the copy from tradingsystemforex.com, and after a week of testing it had made only one trade (a loss) - I gave up on it. I'll slap it on a chart again and give it another chance.

By the way, which MT4 broker do you use? I'm having a hard time trusting all of the marketing that's out there to make an informed decision.

Thanks for your replies!
More...
 
Couple of things...PSAR looks a bit like a 'teaser' in this application. The EMA100 ,while providing fewer trades, seems to provide a profitable run(s)

IMO number of trades is not important...just the end result.

If you want to continue with PSAR you may consider an auto b/e at a reasonable profit level....this will eliminate profitable trades turning into losers.

Are you trades basically freewheeling...no profit goals?

Instead of 1 hour you may want to take a peek at price range settings > 10 and see how that looks as it will possibly reduce some of your nasty drawdowns.

I am a EMA 100 trader on 6E using price range...

Hope this helps in some way...

NiN
 
Thanks NiN.

Using more reasonable lot sizes, the EA is showing ~16% DD with 1.8 profit factor. 260% profit in 2010. My original test was a bit risk-heavy ;) I'd still like to reduce that DD to sub-ten percent...

I agree that the PSAR doesn't do much, it's just a basic filter. Unfortunately, I couldn't find another good exit strategy, because the equity from EA gently oscillates during a range and then increases during trends. It would be nice to perform well, not just mediocrely, in both sorts of markets, but then I guess I'd have found a grail O.o What would you suggest other than PSAR?

Also, what do you mean by "price range settings > 10"? Looking at a shorter TF?

I'll definitely look into putting in a BE, but I'm trying to learn MQL4 as we speak so I don't half-ass this. I do have a TS programmed in, but backtesting seems to show that results are better with it turned off. Unless you have a morsel of BE code you'd like to copy and paste here! :D

At this point, I don't have a profit goal for each of my particular EAs, but my idea is that if I have 3-4 EAs with different strategies running at any one time, it will smooth out my equity curve as if I had a steady profit target across the board. That sound right?

Appreciate your time everyone!
 
Quote from alexboyd:


At this point, I don't have a profit goal for each of my particular EAs, but my idea is that if I have 3-4 EAs with different strategies running at any one time, it will smooth out my equity curve as if I had a steady profit target across the board. That sound right?

Appreciate your time everyone!
More...

I agree, diversification is one of the wonderful tactics of trading.

Broker diversification
Instrument Diversification
Time frame diversification
strategy diversification


All together is the secret sauce.
 
The price range bar is a quantity of ticks representing price movement...when it exceeds the bar setting it will establish a new bar.I am sure that is available on M4...not that i have used M4.

Personally, I don't use time bars,just too inconsistent...

I am computer illiterate...strictly pencil and paper and eyeball...still make the stupidest costly mistakes with my entries on the keyboard from time to time...:mad: ...so I am not the one to ask about coding, but the logic goes something like this for 'auto b/e'...

Say...the 'auto b/e trigger' is 23 pips then set a reversal at say,- 18...for all movements exceeding 23 and above but ultimately reversing -18 establishes your 'OUT'...the minimum profit in this instance would be 5.

An alternative to PSAR, besides nothing, is difficult...most indicators aggravate me...

NiN
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top