Crisis problem focus: US national debt - trigger was credit bubble

Gringinho · Oct 11, 2008

Quote from easy_company:

US can pay back the debt any time they want. They only owe China like 1 trillion dollars, and i think US annual revenue is > 9 Trillions.

That's the spirit!
That's what the US needs - more people like you and with your [size=-2]brainsize[/size]! All heart consumers... a 10 for effort!

With the bright mind of yourself and other like minded, there will be no problems in no-time...
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You tell that liar David M. Walker that he can't add up, and that he is just full of shit.
See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil - and evil begone! Lo and behold! See the light yet? ... tchoo-tchoo

Random.Capital · Oct 11, 2008

Quote from easy_company:

US can pay back the debt any time they want. They only owe China like 1 trillion dollars, and i think US annual revenue is > 9 Trillions.

China holds approximately $3T in agency debt and somewhere near $1T in Treasuries. US tax receipts for 2008 arearound $2.5T while outlays are ~$3T.

So no - it can't be paid "anytime they want" without inflicting a fair bit of fiscal pain on the US domestic economy.

TGregg · Oct 11, 2008

Quote from Random.Capital:

China holds approximately $3T in agency debt and somewhere near $1T in Treasuries. US tax receipts for 2008 arearound $2.5T while outlays are ~$3T.

So no - it can't be paid "anytime they want" without inflicting a fair bit of fiscal pain on the US domestic economy.

I wonder how long until some politico bozo says "Well #@%& them! Let's just make their paper illegal!"

It'd be like WaMu but global. FETE. Geez. It's hard to believe that people this stooopid can drive a car to the liquor store without killing half a dozen people.

zorro · Oct 11, 2008

Doctor, we have a drug addict going through cold turkey, what should we do?

We don't want any suffering, call his drug dealer to get more drugs, pay any price. Tell him there'll be no police.

Drug dealer: See doc, drugs aren't so bad. Look how much better your patient is. They'll need more and more in the future though... but that's ok by me.

a year later...

Doctor, that patient that we kept on drugs... they overdosed and are now dead.

nasdorq · Oct 11, 2008

Quote from Gringinho:

Cesko,

nice to hear you are so optimistic about delivering on the US national debt. You certainly have the working spirit...

Actually, I am European - just living in Brazil for the moment.
As such, I remember quite a few European countries struggling with debts, but turning it around. Hard work, but it was doable. It will be interesting to project how long or how the US are going to pay their debt. What do you think is realistic, and have you given it some thought?

Whether or not the US collapses under their own debts or not, one thing is for sure....If I was in brazil I'd be less on ET and more with armfulls of women

Gringinho · Oct 11, 2008

Quote from nasdorq:

Whether or not the US collapses under their own debts or not, one thing is for sure....If I was in brazil I'd be less on ET and more with armfulls of women

There is something like too much of a good thing as well... and you grow tired of anything when there are easy excesses.

Quality trumps quantity in the end, because you get farther when you are able to construct - not just count.
Don't worry - there are plenty left here... so don't worry about outstaying any welcomes!
You can be a first-class consumer here and consummate all you can manage at once... and then some still waiting in line.

piezoe · Oct 12, 2008

I suppose it is a symptom of the disease afflicting the US that perhaps the most obvious contributor of all to the downhill economic slide the US finds itself in is never mentioned by "mainstream" politicians, and barely mentioned by the populace. Totally out of control "defense" spending and a permanent war footing, when those resources are sorely needed to rebuild decaying USA infrastructure. Neither McCain nor Obama dare mention the possibility of deep cuts in "defense" spending.

It would be laughable, if it were not so serious that the US calls this "defense" spending when we haven't been attacked by another nation in any significant way for nearly seventy years. (Don't bother to point out that's because we have 6,000 hydrogen warheads stockpiled-- such a response would only be a symptom of the disease.)

I wonder how much the current dollar strength has to do with arm sales. The problem with exporting all these arms to other countries, ignoring the moral issue, is that then we want even more expensive stuff. Wasting assets on useless military hardware, unless you consider killing people worthwhile, contributed mightily to the Soviet downfall, and it will have exactly the same outcome for the US. Its an absurdity that the US spends nearly as much on its military as the rest of the world combined --now over 2K$ per year per every man women and child. What were we, and are we, thinking?

"Insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expect different results" A. Einstein

Random.Capital · Oct 12, 2008

Quote from piezoe:
I wonder how much the current dollar strength has to do with arm sales. [/B]

Not much, IMO. There is a bunch of dollar-hoarding going on as a hell of a lot of people/institutions out there are bag-holding USD-denominated debt.

Not quite the same as a "flight to quality"...

piezoe · Oct 12, 2008

Quote from Random.Capital:

Not much, IMO. There is a bunch of dollar-hoarding going on as a hell of a lot of people/institutions out there are bag-holding USD-denominated debt.

Not quite the same as a "flight to quality"...

I guess we are counting on all the bag holders toeing the line to hold up the dollar. It's in their best interest of course. But what happens if a crack in the dike develops and one nation breaks from the pack and tries to front-run the others? Ouch.

Gringinho · Oct 12, 2008

George Soros on Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNNI now... about the financial crisis.

He says the US housing market was the triggering detonator for the deeper crisis of US over-spending, and that the Us has been over-consuming roughly 6-7% per year - more than they produce - and sucking up the world's savings by this consumption - i.e taking taxpayer savings from the world and spent it by issuing sovereign debt to others, and that this was ultimately unsustainable.

He holds that the false premise social construct of this leveraged spending started around 1980 with Ronald Reagan.

He said the federal interventions in handling the various crisis using interest adjustments etc provided the smoke and mirror for "believing markets would self-adjust." He says that the situation is now out of control, starting with the Lehman Bros failure.

I don't fully agree that free markets cannot work, but when they are intervened such as they have been - of course there is a corruption of the system.

Ah, but he redeemed himself saying - "all human constructs are flawed, and regulators are the ones introducing the flaws." That is a great truth. Wonder if he has the insight of consensual constructs based on democratic processes as the foundation for trust, and formal systems supporting such trust models without human intervention in running operations - i.e shunting out the potential for corruption and "human error"...

Finishing, he also sees the USD run-up as the technical shortage of USD and now the repatriation, but over medium term the weakening of USD. China and other countries had surpluses in production, the US ran up their debt through over-consumption.