What is important is the knowledge of the points because this is different from random guessing whereas saying that it will go up or down is useless if it is 50% probability it's no more usefull than random guessing. See http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=474145
I will normally be able to quantify the probability in the future but as I said in other threads I'm more focused on daytrading scale and not yet on upper scales the reason is that in non-linear dynamics (I prefer this term to Chaos Theory) the more components you have to take into account the more difficult it becomes to make accurate prediction. See the 3 body problem even simple equation like Newton creates problem see the same thread above:
"The ideas of dynamical chaos was first glimpsed by Poincaré when he entered a contest sponsored by the king of Sweden. One of the questions in this contest was to show rigorously that the solar system as modeled by Newton's equations is dynamically stable. The question was nothing more than a generalization of the famous three body problem, which was considered one of the most difficult problems in mathematical physics. In essence, the three body problem consists of nine simultaneous differential equations. The difficulty was in showing that a solution in terms of invariants converges. While Poincaré did not succeed in giving a complete solution, his work was so impressive that he was awarded the prize anyway. The distinguished Weierstrass, who was one of the judges, said, "this work cannot indeed be considered as furnishing the complete solution of the question proposed, but that it is nevertheless of such importance that its publication will inaugurate a new era in the history of celestial mechanics." A lively account of this event is given in Newton's Clock: Chaos in the Solar System.
I will normally be able to quantify the probability in the future but as I said in other threads I'm more focused on daytrading scale and not yet on upper scales the reason is that in non-linear dynamics (I prefer this term to Chaos Theory) the more components you have to take into account the more difficult it becomes to make accurate prediction. See the 3 body problem even simple equation like Newton creates problem see the same thread above:
"The ideas of dynamical chaos was first glimpsed by Poincaré when he entered a contest sponsored by the king of Sweden. One of the questions in this contest was to show rigorously that the solar system as modeled by Newton's equations is dynamically stable. The question was nothing more than a generalization of the famous three body problem, which was considered one of the most difficult problems in mathematical physics. In essence, the three body problem consists of nine simultaneous differential equations. The difficulty was in showing that a solution in terms of invariants converges. While Poincaré did not succeed in giving a complete solution, his work was so impressive that he was awarded the prize anyway. The distinguished Weierstrass, who was one of the judges, said, "this work cannot indeed be considered as furnishing the complete solution of the question proposed, but that it is nevertheless of such importance that its publication will inaugurate a new era in the history of celestial mechanics." A lively account of this event is given in Newton's Clock: Chaos in the Solar System.
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