crashing?
- Thread starter huangks
- Start date
I witnessed first hand the crash of 87 and 89. 87 I was a newbie, freaking out a bit as many a more experienced trader rushed to his clearinghouse to get money out,and that several banks near the BOT had long lines of guys wanting to do the same thing. A very frightening time. Thought Id learned my lesson.. 89 comes around, Im short otm IBM puts, thinking theres no way I have to worry about these things... Well i had to worry fast. I still remember a guy next to me saying they are going to push this thing thru 100 ( it was Oct expirations week)... he bought every Oct 100 put for 1/16 or 1/8,and together with his huge back spread,made enough to leave the floor... that was a great trade.
I NOW NOW ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN;AND THAT NOTHING HAS TO HAPPEN...best lesson of my trading life. Wait till theres blood in the street, then buy..... watch vix and vxn..
by the way, sponge bob lives in pineapple under the sea.... my 4 year old has indoctrinated me into this frightening creature who is robbing our children of their humor...
I NOW NOW ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN;AND THAT NOTHING HAS TO HAPPEN...best lesson of my trading life. Wait till theres blood in the street, then buy..... watch vix and vxn..
by the way, sponge bob lives in pineapple under the sea.... my 4 year old has indoctrinated me into this frightening creature who is robbing our children of their humor...
Fondamentally it can't crash with low rates. So this should be just a consolidation as I said in my newsletter there are some potential at least to 10889 on big scale (and more if affinity). 10556 is also on big scale an intermediate level we are consolidating now.
Use WJO's rally attempt analysis. You will find that it has not failed to msure the market since he introduced it. When rally attempt analysis fails, the result suggests that a peaking has occurred. For troughs the analysis shows the turn when the analysis succeeds. The IBD usually posts the results of the test a bout a day after the test applies.
Gives you a lot of time to do your thing.
Today was just a standard "Greenspan". A 150 point move on DJ during business hours after he came out of a meeting.
Blah blah blah. The Dow fell, what, a little over 1%. The Hang Seng fell 2.7% last night - over 300 points. That's an eye opener.
This business today is just a silly overreaction and a great chance to buy your favorite whatever that you know well. Shorts get a well deserved break yesterday and today but it won't last - too much hot money and momo.
Geo.
This business today is just a silly overreaction and a great chance to buy your favorite whatever that you know well. Shorts get a well deserved break yesterday and today but it won't last - too much hot money and momo.
Geo.
is at a 50% retracement of the rally that started back in early December. ( 42.10 ) with some really good support starting just 60 cents lower. This will be key, becuase this group is one of the leaders of any rally due to the PM's wanting to outperform with high beta stocks.
Greenspan's rewording of policy today was simply an excuse to cool-off the past 8-9 weeks of the Bull move. No big deal.
One stock that really acted super strong today was the electronics defense company, LLL. STock was still up on the day, even after backing off of new 52 week highs at $54.93
Margins are increasing and their earnings announcement, complete with initiating a first time dividend on Monday make this stock a good bet for further gains.
Greenspan's rewording of policy today was simply an excuse to cool-off the past 8-9 weeks of the Bull move. No big deal.
One stock that really acted super strong today was the electronics defense company, LLL. STock was still up on the day, even after backing off of new 52 week highs at $54.93
Margins are increasing and their earnings announcement, complete with initiating a first time dividend on Monday make this stock a good bet for further gains.
Quote from waggie945:
Naaaaaaa.
They are just shaking a few longs from the Tree, that's all!
Besides, look at your history books. Corrections in a Bull Market are always very sharp, and short.
Agreed waggie, but the problem is we haven't had a meaningful pullback for so long -- everyone is conditioned to buy any dip. Those short and sharp corrections happened all last year only because everyone was afraid to buy the dips or were shorting them. This time, with the majority of ppl "glad" to finally get a pullback they can buy into, I think things will turn out differently. Who knows!