Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

[1eyejackal]

Good stuff, man. Thanks for sharing all this! Nice to see someone share so freely and also have the results to back it up.

Some questions if you don't mind:

1. How do you deal with range bound markets? I didn't read all your posts, but it seems like you're mostly trying to capture trends and use the 50MA on the 60 as a filter.

Arguably, trading strong trends is the easiest trade you can take, but quite often the indices will be range bound and no doubt chopping up a lot of players on false breakouts and rips being sold and dips being bought as have been the regime for a great part of these last 1 1/2 years.

2. Do you use a daily loss limit for your trading operations?

I know some use a daily loss limit, but I stopped using one as I've sprung back from drawdown to breakeven or even good profits so many times.

3. With your great results so far this year what's your average risk in % per trade?

Thanks, man.


PS: My specialty is ES. I've dabbled in NQ and I do watch it, but it's a tad too wild for me at the moment and while the movement between the two contracts are similar, there are enough differences that it can make or break a strategy/system. IMO, at least.

Will answer this weekend... right now trying to get first place in wti trading contest for fun.

https://www.cmegroup.com/futures_challenge/leaderboard

I'm 1EJ

Most these guys got really lucky buying Sunday night and holding. I got a really late start when I traded first position Monday afternoon, so really had to wrok to get top position. 20 min to go so wish me luck!

 

[1eyejackal]

Will answer this weekend... right now trying to get first place in wti trading contest for fun.

https://www.cmegroup.com/futures_challenge/leaderboard

I'm 1EJ

Most these guys got really lucky buying Sunday night and holding. I got a really late start when I traded first position Tuesday morning, so really had to wrok to get top position. 20 min to go so wish me luck!

Looks like I won! Have to edit my previous post. My first position was actually on Tuesday, so I missed out on the large move from Sun to Mon.

Here's the trade log the CME provided to me after the contest... one can review and get an idea of my style.

Adding the 60min chart for CL ( WTI=West Texas Intermediate (Crude Oil))

 

[1eyejackal]

A post to override our human nature to doubt and scrutinize... .

Ok, gotta run, be back tomorrow.

 

[murray t turtle]

Great topic
Mas are too slow for daytrading, or if you're experienced af your eyes know patterns so well, mas unnecessary

%%
Good points...........................................................................
But one of my charting systems + note book has moving averages so i make do with them, occasionally.
200 can provide$ a real general [almost too general , but not quite]day trading guide for profit taking.
Not sure one could really use a 50dma in daytrading, like possible in sWing/position trading/investing

 

[1eyejackal]

Good stuff, man. Thanks for sharing all this! Nice to see someone share so freely and also have the results to back it up.

Some questions if you don't mind:

I have actually answered all your questions in detail in my previous posts. I'll touch upon them here, but please go review my posts... there are less than 50 .

1. How do you deal with range bound markets? I didn't read all your posts, but it seems like you're mostly trying to capture trends and use the 50MA on the 60 as a filter.

The 50ma on the 60min is not as range bound as you may think. I can only go back 360 days of data, but I started tracking it since 2019. Go and have a look. It's the best edge right now for trading NQ.

2. Do you use a daily loss limit for your trading operations?

Yes, but it has been adjusted as the account has grown. Currently at:
1.5nq * 25pts * 2x = $1500/~50k=3%.

3. With your great results so far this year what's your average risk in % per trade?

Max position size currently is 1.5nq = ~30k. I haven't done the avg position size calc since for me it is not meaningful, because there are a lot of times I have missed my "perfect setup" entry points by just .25pts and didn't chase the mkt.

My exit is not as tight as I am willing to go has high as 1pt slippage. My tight entries are my "leaks" currently. All the cancels you see in my posts are where I missed great trades since I usually scale into positions.

Some more very important info I will add. My trades revolve around the 5 min and 60min candles. (there are other time frames too as explained in previous posts).

I pay VERY CLOSE attention to the time when the next candle will be created. The last few seconds of a candle in its timeframe more often than not gives clues as to what will happen in the next.

Lastly, I found out late Friday that I actually won $2500 in the WTI trading contest. I do remember there was a prize, but thought it was only for a book for the top 40 results. This was my very first entry into any type of trading contest and I did it just to see if my methods work on WTI... I think they do!

Last btw, I don't listen to any news, track any advisement services etc. All my trading is all based on chart pattern supply/demand from what I assume are HFT algos.

 

[SunTrader]

Back to Ken's topic - this particular Monday should be interesting, if not prolly by Tues/Weds.

 

[NCC1701]

Back to Ken's topic - this particular Monday should be interesting, if not prolly by Tues/Weds.

To see if the rally holds? I don't see anything on the calendar. Bonds seem to teetering about when rate cuts may actually happen, talk about looking ahead.

 

[SunTrader]

To see if the rally holds? I don't see anything on the calendar. Bonds seem to teetering about when rate cuts may actually happen, talk about looking ahead.

Agree, nothing I see on calendar. But I see a lot (not good) on the charts.

Maybe nothing, maybe something. TWT

 

[SunTrader]

Guess sumtim' popped onto the calendar this evening. OPEC cutting production.

CL gapped up tonight $5 or so. Not good for retail spending except for Exxon maybe.

 

[SunTrader]