Crash is Upon Us

Circle · Jul 21, 2006

larry (kudlow), abby (cohen) and other bulls,

no need to panic. Please step in and buy these dips, and hold for 10 years..

Fundamentals look great. forward 1 yr P/E ratio 14, 5 yr forward P/E ~10, 10yr forward P/E only 7..
End of rate hikes just around the corner. no inflation in sight (exclude food, water, energy, housing, grocery, education, socks and pills), inflation appears well contained ~0.1% q/q.

fed's unofficial forecast: Dow 12000 by year end, and on target to 36000 by 2016..

Jayford · Jul 21, 2006

Overall I agree with Pabst (usually do).

But when everyone is so bearish (my contacts anyway), there tends to be lots of one day pops where the shorts get squeezed. Anything at all positive about the Lebanon thing will crush crude/ gold in the short term, and provide a few of these days. I will be looking at this close, but on balance prolly short in the mean time.

Just my 2 cents,

Jay

thorn · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from DrawDown:

Yeah? Well, I beat all you guys to it.

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72767

Not exactly. To make $ in the market, timing is everything. You made your call last friday. In the past week, the s&p made a low around 1225, and then surged to over 1260. That would shake alot of weak hands out who thought crash. Don't tell me you shorted and held thru that?

Pabst and I make our calls on 7/21. I doubt the s&p will surge 35 pts next week before falling. Timing is everything.

thorn · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from polpolik:

thorn I gotta say, you piss a lot of people off but your calls are quite accurate (at least the ones I've read).

We'll see how the market does next week.

This is Pabst thread, so it's not for me to post alot.

I will say (again) that I found and came to ET to aggressively defend a friend from a slimy backstabbing slug who was posting jealous lies w/ respect to my buddy. And for whatever reason, I kinda kept that aggressive personality thru today. So I kind of like playing the wrestling villian.

But this is not my true personality. I'm really a humble, decent dude.

romik · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from thorn:

...But this is not my true personality. I'm really a humble, decent dude.

You are not one of the WWF crowd?

William Rennick · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from romik:

I like Thorns commentary regarding "we have always thought alike", what since April 06?

Also, Pabst, I take it you are short now without a hedge? OK then.

Great observation, you caught him in a fruedian slip as he thought back to his days as the Rubberbird.

thorn · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from romik:

You are not one of the WWF crowd?

it's WWE, & I love Randy Orton.
He makes me laugh like the Rock used to.

Cheese · Jul 21, 2006

Things have been and are very good really .. but the 'feel good' factor has always been slightly soured by the fine mist of sh*t clouding the whole world stage stemming from the whole Iraq/Iran quagmire and the never ending extremist Muslim & terrorist overlay which reaches almost everywhere.

Best to just get on with things.

romik · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from William Rennick:

Great observation, you caught him in a fruedian slip as he thought back to his days as the Rubberbird.

Is Rubberbird related to Durex at all?

DrawDown · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from thorn:

But this is not my true personality. I'm really a humble, decent dude.

Yeah, and Charlie Manson said, "I'm really a good soul. I have people's best interest at heart."

He forgot to mention that the "heart" was the one he was holding in his hand, of his last victim.

dd