Crash is Upon Us

P

Pabst

If you're long and under water you're living in denial.

It's not so much conditions being bearish. It's more a case of longs just not seeing any upside potential in this climate. The only buyers I see are those who are averaging bad positions from higher levels and some shorts who are taking a few in.

IMO SPX will be under 1200 by this time next week.
 
Quote from Pabst:

If you're long and under water you're living in denial.

It's not so much conditions being bearish. It's more a case of longs just not seeing any upside potential in this climate. The only buyers I see are those who are averaging bad positions from higher levels and some shorts who are taking a few in.

IMO SPX will be under 1200 by this time next week.
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It does look like a lot of profit taking is occurring in some sectors. OIH has been a daily surprise to me for the last week. Obviously, tech is going to be a bust as far as upside momentum for the second half -- but that's not a new thought.

The kicker is going to be the Fed meeting. Everyone is pushing for a pause. If we don't get it, I think we could see a dip below the late Oct/Nov lows. If we do get it, i see a short term rally as people talk past the Q3 weakness and prepare for Q4 markups.

Just my $.02.
 
yeah, and the fact that there has been "spectacular" earnings from AAPL, MOT and GOOG and share buyback from MSFT didn't even budge the market upwards.
 
Quote from Pabst:

If you're long and under water you're living in denial.

It's not so much conditions being bearish. It's more a case of longs just not seeing any upside potential in this climate. The only buyers I see are those who are averaging bad positions from higher levels and some shorts who are taking a few in.

IMO SPX will be under 1200 by this time next week.
More...

Pabst, you beat me to it. You and I have always thought alike.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1139556#post1139556
 
thorn I gotta say, you piss a lot of people off but your calls are quite accurate (at least the ones I've read).

We'll see how the market does next week.
 
I like Thorns commentary regarding "we have always thought alike", what since April 06?

Also, Pabst, I take it you are short now without a hedge? OK then.
 
I also think we are going to get there, but I don't think we will get there next week.

The most likely target on this go around is 1201-1206. Worst case scenario will be 1164-1170. If we drop to the lower number we will get another rally taking us close to 1200.
 
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