Crash effect on LEAPS

[poorboy]

For those of you who have been trading a long time . . .

Suppose you get a 30 percent drop over a week. How bad does it effect options with expirations a year away? Is the price only marginally effected because the market expects recovery, or do those long expiration options reflect almost as if its expected to stay that price?

 

[JackRab]

Calls or puts? OTM or ITM or ATM?

 

[just21]

Use an options price calculator to simulate the move.
http://www.hoadley.net/options/optiongraphs.aspx?

 

[ironchef]

For those of you who have been trading a long time . . .

Suppose you get a 30 percent drop over a week. How bad does it effect options with expirations a year away? Is the price only marginally effected because the market expects recovery, or do those long expiration options reflect almost as if its expected to stay that price?

A layperson's answer:

If you have a LEAP option, in a week, theta decay is negligible so the outcome will be affected mainly by the change in underlying and change in IV. In a dramatic 30% drop in the underlying, chances are IV will spike so the effect of underlying drop and IV spike counterbalance each other.

The change in option price will depend on the two parameters and whether the option is ITM, ATM or OTM. ITM option has very little time premium so the change will be dominated by change in underlying. ATM and OTM are a mix bag.

Don't know if I make any sense?

 

[vanzandt]

Yesterday the Target (TGT) Jan 2018 $55 puts were trading at $2.30... the stock was at $67

Today those same OTM puts are trading at $4.20 with the stock down 12% @ $58.94

So there's kind of a real time example for ya. Not sure where the original post went though.

 

[JackRab]

There's a little bit more to it than just using a options calculator from Hoadley.

A 30% drop, depending on what underlying and circumstances, IV-shift would be substantially. Even for 1 year out that could mean IV up by 30%... or even down, when IV's where elevated already. And don't forget skew.

In @vanzandt's example, IV stayed relatively steady... not much skew and therefore the only effects were mainly delta + little bit gamma.

 

[poorboy]

Really good responses. Thank you!