Crash Down, Crash Up!

smallfil said:
If you look at the weekly charts, the trend is still up but, the chicken littles love to remind us how smart they are and how they have things figured out. Okay, if you say so. Not that it changes reality but, some traders need to lose their heads. So be it. Life goes on.
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nice perspective

no crash that is all I am saying....there is no 'correct'
such 'crashes' happen twice a day in forex


but what else traders say are correct because they are on a different time frame. they are all smart

not to say further market action cannot change everything

if market falls another 5% then something else is happening.

there was only one Nostradamus....I have perfect 6/6 hindsight...….

EDIT but that hindsight makes me money​
 
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IMHO it’s a natural correction.
We’re either going up from here.
Or we could go deeper around 2500.

It’s 50/50 for me.

We went down 522Pts more or less.
We went up 154Pts more or less.

Nothing bullish currently.

If we break and kill 3030,
Then the downtrend might reverse.
Especially if we make a higher low > 2850

Under 3030 it’s just a natural correction.

But the latest leg down was -7.85%
When we before made -5.41%, -5.17%, -5.53%.
So it might be the end of the bearish trend.

Retracement wise we made:
1.42%, 2.95%, 3.00% and today 5.00%.

Bulls are catching up.

But nothing bullish under 3030.
Volatility is growing both sides.
 
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Volatility is growing both sides.
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The VIX spent most of the day around 49. That's higher than it was back in Dec 2018. Tied with Feb 2018. It's hard for it to stay that high for long. It basically runs out of energy.

As I see it, the bears need to keep feeding more and more bad news. They need more deaths, more outbreaks, more fear to keep the market going lower. Otherwise, after such an extreme 1 week move, the market will naturally reverse on no news or good news.
 
Scataphagos said:
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The ES rallied >100 points in the last 15 minutes to close ~35 points above the cash. Is there a story on the wind about the Fed jumping in this weekend or was it just anticipation of same?
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Likely short covering rally. Probability favors next few weeks being sideways to down. There is a good chance we will see some “above average“ daily rallies (even some looking quite spectacular within the sideways move) but the corona virus has no easy solution and will keep this market weak for months. I really expect sideways PA and another leg down. Once the corona virus threat is over we will see some very bullish action in my opinion. But that is a few months down the road....as a minimum, I think.
 
Also, we're approaching spring. I suspect the warmer weather will naturally help reduce the spread of the virus. Anecdotal, but I've never gotten a flu after around February.
 
ET180 said:
The VIX spent most of the day around 49. That's higher than it was back in Dec 2018. Tied with Feb 2018. It's hard for it to stay that high for long. It basically runs out of energy.

As I see it, the bears need to keep feeding more and more bad news. They need more deaths, more outbreaks, more fear to keep the market going lower. Otherwise, after such an extreme 1 week move, the market will naturally reverse on no news or good news.
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it runs out of energy. to sustain it would require increasing the rate it sucks in matter which becomes not feasible with conservation and exclusion principles
 
ET180 said:
Also, we're approaching spring. I suspect the warmer weather will naturally help reduce the spread of the virus. Anecdotal, but I've never gotten a flu after around February.
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I'm not a virologist, but is corona just flu-like or close enough to behave like the flu? Why can we make the assumption it will go away come spring time as the flu does?

I honestly don't know why people don't get the flu in warm weather....something having to do w/lots of people in enclosed spaces maybe?
 
Here4money said:
I honestly don't know why people don't get the flu in warm weather....something having to do w/lots of people in enclosed spaces maybe?
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I'm not a doctor or biologist, but I think it's because people spend more time outside and have better access to fresh air. Also, doesn't UV from the sun kill viruses? I know hospitals use UV light to sterilize the air.

If people are really worried about this virus, just go off-grid for a while. Doubt many people in a remote part of Montana are worried about the virus.
 
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