Crash, Correction or Studder Step?

Quote from S2007S:
you dont believe in bear markets???
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I have a question. What's your fascination with bear markets? Does one become a better trader if we expect a bear market after every 2% dip?

I think its good to be skeptical and careful in order to preserve capital, but in all honesty, we're off what like 5% of all time highs? Let's talk about bear markets when we're off 15, 18, 20%. We're not there yet, and I have to say the market doesn't look good right now IMHO. In fact worst I've seen it in the last 24 months.

Philly Bank Index broke to new lows. Philly Semi Index looks like puke, broke to new lows. I only need to see oils and the entire commodity complex breaking down (and they had a major sell off last Friday on the SLB news) and we're in deep trouble. Tech (Semis) and Oils/Commodities/Industrials brought us up here. When they're gone nothing will hold us up here not even some half a dozen BS momentum tech names.

But again, on the major indexes, we're nowhere close to being in a bear market.. yet. Wouldn't be the first time everything looks terrible and then suddenly we squeeze higher on some BS news. I am ready to play both sides.
 
don't hedge gains, hang out by StckTdr.

After all he is right again, Dow erases 200 point gain as we post!

payS

Do you even remember 1999-2003???

Things change awfully fast and if you don't adhere to strict stop-loss methods all this hoopla will simply be moot.

G
 
Quote from paysense:
Do you even remember 1999-2003???

Things change awfully fast
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Yes I do remember and I disagree. Things in the markets don't change in one day. Topping out is a process that can take weeks and months with sharp sell offs and rapid short covering rallies wearing out investors one by one, leaving more and more sectors with bearish charts until there's no leading sectors left holding up the big indexes.

And for all I know we could be in the middle of it (per the sector issues I outlined above). Bear markets do not happen overnight though, that's all bogus.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Here I am

time for market to rebound
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and rebound it did

Dow gains back 100 points intraday losses and went green.

Very bad time 2 be short. The last good time to short was in 2000-2001..ha only 2 years.

We are entering the era of economic perpetualism. No more bear markets. No more volatility. Read more about it here:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1643731&highlight=perpetualism#post1643731

This may seem absurd especially after the the 2000 bear market but I know I am right cause I know how the markets work. I can guarantee you will never see another bear market in your lifetime.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

and rebound it did

dow gains back 100 points intraday losses

very bad time 2 be short
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you're a witch .. burn that (w)bitch

a 2% downside is unacceptable in this market because _________ .

I think they are so scared that if it falls 2-3% it will keep falling nonstop, they try to make sure it doesn't fall beyond a certain point
 
There is no 'they'.

The market today are much more robust and resilient than they were twenty years ago due to arbiters and more advanced trading systems, as well as robust fundamentals in America and overseas. In the 70's, for example, it wasn't very uncommon for the market to correct 2% or more in a single day or two because there was no one there to 'buy the dip'. In the past five years there has only been a single day, feb 27th, when the market corrected more than 3% in a single day.
 
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